As simple indicators referred to as a 'true bottom' signal have yet to appear in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, analysis suggests that the recent rebound may be temporary.
As of the 17th, Bitcoin is trading at around $75,000 (approximately 111.27 million won). This represents a significant drop from the all-time high of $126,000 recorded last October, and the price even fell to $60,000 in early February. Despite the recent rebound, the general market view is that it is still difficult to consider this the "end of the bear market."
Market bottom signal seen with just two lines
This indicator does not rely on complex on-chain data or macroeconomic analysis, but uses only two moving averages of Bitcoin's price: the 50-week and 100-week moving averages.
Generally, in an uptrend, the 50-week moving average is located above the 100-week moving average. However, if fear reaches extreme levels and selling pressure is maximized, a 'dead cross' occurs where the 50-week moving average falls below the 100-week moving average.
The interesting point is that, unlike typical bearish signals, this signal has historically acted as the opposite indicator, signaling the market 'bottom'.
2015, 2019, and 2022, three identical patterns
In the history of Bitcoin, this cross has occurred a total of three times: in April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022.
In 2015, the market even assessed Bitcoin as a failed experiment, but subsequently, the price surged from $200 to nearly $20,000. A similar trend was repeated in 2019.
During the 'Crypto Winter' of 2022, investor sentiment collapsed due to a series of bankruptcies and fraud, but the downtrend halted after the September crossover, forming a foundation for a rebound. Subsequently, Bitcoin rose to approximately $126,000 in October 2025.
All three of these cases share the commonality that a long-term bull market followed the occurrence of the corresponding signal.
Current market, no signals yet
However, as of April 2026, this 'bottom signal' has not yet appeared. The 50-week moving average is still above the 100-week line, and while the two lines are gradually getting closer, they have not yet crossed.
Historically speaking, this suggests that the current bear market may not yet be over. It is also interpreted that the recent rebound to the $75,000 level could be a temporary recovery rather than a full-scale turnaround to an upward trend.
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View full Alpha Report →The variables are institutional demand and the macro environment
However, past patterns do not guarantee the future. If institutional capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs expand as the U.S. stock market hits all-time highs, it could act as a new variable supporting the price.
Ultimately, Bitcoin is an asset simultaneously influenced by technical indicators, the macroeconomic environment, and capital flows. Whether the simple signals of the '50-week and 100-week lines' will remain valid once again is emerging as a key point to watch that will determine the market's next direction.
🔎 Market Analysis
Although Bitcoin has recently rebounded, it is difficult to conclude that the bear market is completely over as the "dead cross" of the 50- and 100-week moving averages, which was a past bottom signal, has not yet occurred. It is suggested that the current trend is likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.
💡 Strategic Points
• Pay attention to whether the 50-week and 100-week lines cross as a criterion for determining medium- to long-term trends.
• Consider a split approach strategy after confirming signals rather than chasing short-term rebounds.
• It is also necessary to check macroeconomic variables such as ETF fund inflows, interest rates, and stock market trends.
📘 Glossary
• Moving Average (MA): An indicator representing the average price over a certain period as a line.
• Dead Cross: A signal that the short-term moving average line falls below the long-term line.
• Technical Rebound: A temporary price rise within a downtrend
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q. What is the 'floor signal' mentioned in the article?
Q. Isn't the current rebound the start of a bull market?
Q. Can I invest based solely on this indicator?
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