Charles Schwab và Citadel Securities cân nhắc gia nhập thị trường dự đoán
Charles Schwab và Citadel Securities đều đang cân nhắc bước vào thị trường dự đoán, nơi Kalshi và Polymarket vừa đạt kỷ lục 23,6 tỷ USD khối lượng giao dịch trong tháng 3. CEO Schwab cho biết công ty "rất có thể sẽ" tham gia nhưng sẽ tránh hoàn toàn các cược thể thao, chính trị hay văn hóa đại chúng vì không phù hợp với định hướng xây dựng tài sản lâu dài.
Chủ tịch Citadel Securities cũng xác nhận đang theo dõi sát lĩnh vực này và thấy tiềm năng rõ ràng ở các hợp đồng sự kiện như bầu cử, nơi nhà đầu tư có thể dùng để phòng ngừa rủi ro danh mục. Cả hai đều không quan tâm đến mảng thể thao. Diễn biến này xảy ra trong bối cảnh thị trường dự đoán đang chịu áp lực pháp lý từ các cơ quan quản lý tiểu bang và một số nhà lập pháp liên bang Mỹ.

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Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities are considering entering the forecasting market.
Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities are both considering entering the prediction market, where Kalshi and Polymarket just hit a record $23.6 billion in volume in March. CEO Schwab said the company "very likely will" participate but will completely avoid sports, political, or popular culture betting as it doesn't align with its long-term asset-building strategy.
The chairman of Citadel Securities also confirmed that they are closely monitoring this sector and see clear potential in event contracts such as election contracts, where investors can use them to hedge portfolio risk. Neither of them is interested in the sports sector. This development comes amid market expectations of legal pressure from state regulators and some US federal lawmakers.

Written by: Long Yue

Source: Wall Street News

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- Buy stocks at current valuations...

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[Powell] The interest rate decision remains at 3.5%-3.75%...

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Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi recently announced the launch of perpetual futures, while cryptocurrency exchange Hyperliquid is entering the prediction market through event contracts. Perpetual contract trading volume is seven times that of spot trading, generating nearly $1 billion in annual revenue. However, prediction markets suffer from insufficient user stickiness; only 8%-11% of users are still trading a year later, and approximately 75% churn within 90 days. Operating perpetual contracts requires a complex technology stack including a highly liquid order book, risk engine, and funding rate mechanisms. Hyperliquid has already completed stress tests using real events. Prediction markets...