TechFlow to TechFlow, on May 2nd, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin returned above $78,000 on Friday, rising 15% over the past 30 days, but the derivatives market remains cautious about further gains. Deribit data shows that a BTC call option expiring on May 29th with a strike price of $84,000 is trading at 0.0136 BTC (approximately $1063), implying only a 25% probability of Bitcoin rising 8% to that price level by the end of May.
The 30-day delta skew indicator for options has remained above the 6% neutral threshold for the past month, reflecting rising put option premiums and increased demand for downside protection. The monthly BTC futures basis typically trades at a 4% to 8% premium to the spot price, but has been weak over the past 30 days, partly due to Bitcoin's 12% decline since the beginning of 2026.
Despite a cautious approach in the derivatives market, institutional demand for spot Bitcoin remained strong. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.3 billion in March and a further $2 billion in April, pushing total net assets above $100 billion. Listed companies have significantly increased their holdings over the past 30 days, including Strategy (MSTR) adding 56,235 BTC, Metaplanet (3350) adding 5,075 BTC, and Strive (ASST) adding 929 BTC, totaling an absorption equivalent to the Bitcoin mining supply for the next five months.
