Original author: Claude, TechFlow
TechFlow Dive: CryptoQuant's Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has turned positive for the first time since October 2025, while another key indicator, the Bull Score Index, rose into the neutral zone of 50 in late April. Bitcoin has risen for three consecutive months, with the price rebounding from a February low of around $60,000 to above $81,000. However, the lessons of 2022 remind the market that similar signals failed after a week, followed by a continued sharp decline in prices.
Bitcoin's on-chain data is releasing a long-awaited positive signal.
According to data from CryptoQuant, its Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has recently returned to positive territory, the first time since the P&L index fell below its 365-day moving average in October 2025.
This indicator measures the distance between the P&L index and its 365-day moving average to determine whether Bitcoin is currently in a bull or bear market cycle. The P&L index itself integrates three core on-chain metrics: the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and the SOPR of long-term and short-term holders. It is a unified valuation tool used by CryptoQuant to assess whether Bitcoin's price is overvalued or undervalued.
As of press time, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $81,000, a rebound of over 35% from its cycle low of around $60,000 in early February.
Image source: CryptoQuant, original post by analyst MorenoDV_
From a deep bear market to its first positive turnaround, the on-chain repair took 7 months.
Looking back at the on-chain trajectory of this bear market: After Bitcoin plummeted from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the bull-bear cycle indicator quickly plunged into negative territory. According to a Cryptonomist report in February of this year, the indicator fell to approximately -1.2 in early February, comparable to the lows seen during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020. A concurrent report by CryptBull also confirmed that the indicator reading had reached its lowest level since the FTX crash in 2022.
The recovery from the deep bear market bottom in February to the recent positive close took about three months. This is faster than the 2022 cycle (when the indicator remained in negative territory for about 12 months), but given that this cycle saw a drop of about 55% from peak to trough (from $126,000 to less than $60,000), the sustainability of the recovery remains controversial.
The Bull Score Index has also risen to neutral, with multiple indicators showing a convergence.
The reversal of the bull-bear cycle indicator is not an isolated event.
According to a CoinDesk report on April 23, CryptoQuant's other core metric, the Bull Score Index, rose to a neutral reading of 50 during the same period, marking the first time the index has risen since Bitcoin began its decline from its high of $126,000.
The Bull Score Index integrates 10 indicators across the blockchain, covering dimensions such as blockchain activity, investor profitability, and liquidity. A reading below 40 typically indicates a structural bear market, while a reading above 60 points to a strong and sustainable upward trend.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, commented that this is the first time the Bull Score Index has entered the neutral zone during this bear market. However, he also cited the precedent of March 2022: when the index also briefly rose to 50, but only maintained that level for about a week before prices continued to fall sharply.
The improvement in price is equally evident. Bitcoin rose by approximately 2% and 12% in March and April, respectively, and has gained about 6% so far in May, recording positive returns for three consecutive months.
Lessons from the 2022 "false signals": History may not repeat itself, but the market remembers.
The market's biggest concern about the current positive signs stems from the lessons of history in 2022.
In March of that year, the Bull Score Index briefly rose to the neutral range of 50, after which Bitcoin plummeted from approximately $47,000 to $16,000. The Bull-Bear Cycle Index also briefly turned positive in 2022, but ultimately continued its sharp decline under the impact of the consecutive collapses of Luna/UST and FTX.
However, this cycle differs structurally from that of 2022. Since its launch in January 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a significant anchor for institutional demand. According to SpotCrypto, net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $2.44 billion in April, the strongest month since October 2025. Glassnode data shows that the number of whale addresses holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins has increased by 142 in the past six months. Furthermore, Glassnode's RHODL ratio is currently 4.5, the third highest reading in Bitcoin history. Similar highs occurred at the bottoms of cycles in 2015 and 2022, both followed by sustained bull markets.
StoneX’s Global Head of Research, Matt Weller, provided a more cautious frame of reference in his Q2 outlook.
Based on Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, the sustained bottom of this cycle may not appear until around the fourth quarter of 2026. If this historical pattern holds true, the drop from the peak to the bottom would be approximately 60%, corresponding to a price of around $50,000.
For traders, the true meaning of the current signal might be:
The worst of the panic may have passed, but it's too early to declare a new bull market underway. Bitcoin needs to break through and hold above the 200-day moving average resistance above $82,000 for the technicals to provide a more convincing confirmation of a trend reversal.
