Chainfeeds Summary:
The worst of the panic may have passed, but it's too early to declare the start of a new bull market.
Article source:
https://www.techflowpost.com/zh-CN/article/31538
Article Author:
TechFlow TechFlow
Opinion:
TechFlow TechFlow: A Review of the On-Chain Trajectory of This Bear Market: After Bitcoin plummeted from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the Bull-Bear Cycle indicator quickly plunged into negative territory. According to a Cryptonomist report in February of this year, the indicator fell to approximately -1.2 in early February, comparable to the lows during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020. A concurrent report by CryptBull also confirmed that the indicator reading had reached its lowest level since the FTX crash in 2022. The recovery from the deep bear market bottom in February to its recent positive close took approximately three months. This speed is faster than the 2022 cycle (when the indicator remained in negative territory for about 12 months), but considering the approximately 55% drop from peak to trough in this cycle (from $126,000 to less than $60,000), the sustainability of the recovery remains controversial. According to a CoinDesk report on April 23, CryptoQuant's other core indicator, the Bull Score Index, rose to a neutral reading of 50 during the same period, the first time this index has reached this level since Bitcoin began its decline from its high of $126,000. The Bull Score Index integrates 10 indicators across various dimensions, including blockchain activity, investor profitability, and liquidity. A reading below 40 typically indicates a structural bear market, while a reading above 60 points to a strong, sustainable upward trend. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, commented that this is the first time the Bull Score Index has entered the neutral zone during this bear market. However, he also cited the precedent of March 2022, when the index briefly rose to 50 but only maintained this level for about a week before prices continued to fall sharply. Matt Weller, Global Head of Research at StoneX, provided a more cautious reference frame in his Q2 outlook. Based on Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, a sustained bottom for this cycle may not appear until around the fourth quarter of 2026. If the historical pattern holds true, the drop from peak to trough would be approximately 60%, corresponding to a price of around $50,000. For traders, the true meaning of the current signal might be that the most panicked phase has passed, but it's too early to declare the start of a new bull market. Bitcoin needs to break through and hold above the 200-day moving average resistance above $82,000 to provide a more convincing technical confirmation of a trend reversal.
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