Buy Dylan Crews, sell Josh Jung, hold Grayson Rodriguez in fantasy baseball

Starting the season in Triple A was not what fantasy managers expected for Dylan Crews, but he made a strong a case to return to Washington. Doug Murray (Icon Sportswire) / Getty Images For whatever reason, this feels like a season where the toolsy young guys are racing past the veterans. I looked at a few steady vets having terrible seasons as potential buys, but couldn't talk myself into giving my stamp of approval to Matt Chapman or Manny Machado, among others. Here's who made the cut: This is just my read of the vibes, but I feel like Smith is still underrated. He's a catcher with power and elite contact skills in the league's best lineup. What appears on the surface to be a dip in power may open a window to trade for him at a good price. While his barrel rate of 15% would be a career high by a wide margin, his HR/FB rate is just 8.2%. His Statcast expected slugging of .482 is over 100 points higher than his actual slugging of .372. The only place he falls short is in playing time -- he gets an off day roughly every third game. That puts him behind the top options at the position, but on a per-game basis, he can hang with any backstop. I generally stay out of the minor leagues in this column -- too much uncertainty around when players will actually show up and what they'll do when they get there -- but in this case I would have made an exception. Given the month that Crews had at Triple A -- slash line of .291/.339/.527 -- I was prepared to endorse him as a "buy" with the expectation he'd get called up soon. Sure enough, right after I finished my initial draft of this column, the announcement was made that Crews would be rejoining the Nationals ahead of Tuesday's contest against the Mets. I'll make no promises on his batting average, but in his 116 MLB games thus far, Crews has amassed 13 homers and 29 steals. He has tools, and there's no way we've seen the best of him. Swanson was the definition of boring value heading into the season, but this season the value part of that hasn't shown up. His barrel rate is down a little, but that's offset by improvements in his strikeout and walk rates. He mostly seems like the same guy he's been for a while, just with a .209 BABIP instead of one around .300. He'll be back to doing his thing before too long. Gilbert was a consensus top-10 starter coming into the year, and this season his Stuff+ and Pitching+ are as good as ever. Yet, the results have been ho-hum. A 4.45 ERA with good peripherals is nothing to worry about, but the 24.7% K rate (after last year's 32.3%) gives me pause. Projections call for a modest uptick to 26%, which would fit the 12.8% swinging-strike rate (also down a bit from last year). I'd put him down for a mid-3s ERA going forward, and a K rate around 26-27% with upside for a bit more. Arozarena is on pace for his best season yet by ... chasing more and cutting his barrel rate in half? Like the next guy on this list, he's hitting more liners and fewer flies, which has spiked his BABIP. A lot of his extra production this year has come on pitches out of the zone, which is not something I want to bank on continuing. It's possible that he just goes back to who he was last year, which is a very valuable fantasy player, but for the moment I see changes that look good on the surface and make me nervous long term. Jung has been a nice comeback story this year, and despite listing him here, I see plenty to like. He's cut his swinging-strike rate down to a tidy 7.3%, makes a ton of solid contact and has traded some fly balls for line drives. He's a "sell" because this is probably the best version of him, and he probably can't sustain the 27.2% LD rate (third among qualified hitters) or the .336 BABIP. If he's more of a .270-.280 hitter than a .300 hitter going forward, his fantasy value drops quite a bit because he won't steal, and the power is middling. Trade him to the Rangers fan in your league who has been watching Jung and Brandon Nimmo do their best to prop up the offense. I see Ray holding on to his 24% K rate, but the ERA and WHIP will rise. Heading into Sunday night's start against the Diamondbacks, he was giving up a .234 BABIP and stranding over 90% of the runners who reached base against him. Some pitchers have such good stuff that you can talk yourself into the "luck" stats being sustainable, but that hasn't been Ray for a while. The park will absorb some of the damage, but the waters will get choppy before too long. Cantillo isn't pitching way over his head, but do you want a pitcher on your roster with a 21% K rate whose ERA starts with a 4? Maybe in deeper leagues, but in 12-teamers, Cantillo will be more streamer than regular by the summer. While he looks much the same as he did in a hybrid role last year, the K rate has dropped, and it will be hard for him to sustain a mid-3s ERA unless he can bring that up. The one counterpoint is that his swinging-strike rate has held steady at 12%, which indicates potential for more strikeouts. In most leagues, I'd be happy to cash in if I can get someone useful. Burleson has been one reason the Cardinals have defied expectations this year. While he's looked like about the same guy as last year, maybe a bit worse, Statcast thinks he's deserved better results, giving him a .541 xSLG. His 10.9% barrel rate would be the best of his career. I'm skeptical he'll be that good, but he might have another half a level. I almost listed Rafaela as a "sell" because his BABIP is .352 against a career figure of .308, and you can expect the average to drop. I also don't know what to make of him going just 3-for-7 on steal attempts so far. However, there are some interesting approach changes that make me think this could be his best year at the plate, even as the average comes down. He's swinging less and missing less, which has raised his walk rate from basically non-existent to merely below average. The power is more doubles than homers, but he leans into that with an all-fields approach. I'd still be open to selling, but he's not fool's gold. Let's give him a realistic chance. After logging all of 9.2 innings across two minor league rehab starts (where he notched 18 strikeouts), Rodriguez was thrown in front of the best offense in baseball on Sunday, allowing seven runs in 3.2 IP against the Dodgers. He'll get a more manageable matchup next time out, when he'll face the Rangers. I might keep him on the bench for that one to be on the safe side, but long-term I'm still plenty intrigued. Assuming his stuff is still there, Rodriguez can be a fantasy SP2 on a per-inning basis, and he might be free in some leagues right now.