The US-Iran ceasefire negotiations went through a series of reversals in less than 24 hours, from "final draft" on May 21 to "hanging by a thread" on May 22.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on social media today that he exchanged views with UN Secretary-General António Guterres on "the latest regional situation and the progress of Iran-US diplomacy brokered by Pakistan".
"The United States' repeated betrayals of trust and military aggression against Iran, its contradictory stances and excessive demands are all factors that hinder the negotiation process."
However, Araghchi also emphasized that despite "strong suspicion" of the United States, Iran is participating in the diplomatic process in a responsible and highly serious manner. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously confirmed Pakistan as the main mediator, but Trump told the media that the ceasefire agreement is currently "on life support."
February air raids to the May draft
This diplomatic tug-of-war can be traced back to the joint US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on February 28. Iran immediately threatened to "completely blockade" the Strait of Hormuz and strike regional energy infrastructure. The situation escalated again in early May, with the UAE and Oman intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, the US military destroying six to seven Iranian speedboats attempting to disrupt commercial shipping, and the Iranian Navy claiming to have hit a US frigate (which the US Central Command denied).
Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi has been working to win over both sides, and the ceasefire framework includes six provisions: a comprehensive ceasefire, guaranteeing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, phased lifting of sanctions (provided Iran complies), and the establishment of a joint monitoring mechanism.
However, Iran had angrily denounced the US's 15-point proposal as "unacceptable" in early May, and after several rounds of revisions, it has reached the current state of "final draft but not yet signed".
$1.07 billion in magnesium fled the crypto market.
Geopolitical risks are directly reflected in digital assets. In the week ending May 18, the crypto market saw a net outflow of $1.07 billion, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows. Brent crude oil briefly touched a 52-week high of $120 per barrel at the end of April, and Bitcoin climbed to $82,000 to $83,000 amid optimistic expectations of a ceasefire, but fell back after negotiations stalled, dropping as low as $75,500 last week.
The U.S. Treasury Department is simultaneously tightening crypto sanctions, with OFAC freezing $344 million in Tether USDT linked to the Central Bank of Iran in April. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that nearly $500 million in Iranian-linked crypto assets have been frozen this year.
In January, OFAC blacklisted two UK-registered exchanges, identifying them as being involved in approximately $1 billion in stablecoin flows linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Iran's cryptocurrency ecosystem is worth approximately $7.7 billion, with the Revolutionary Guard accounting for about half of it. Starting in April, Iran announced it would accept cryptocurrency as payment for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and even launched a Bitcoin-backed cargo insurance program called "Hormuz Safe."
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