Odaily Odaily reports that while concerns about war-induced inflation persist, there are signs that other factors are also influencing long-term borrowing costs. In the United States, the so-called "real yield," adjusted for inflation, has a greater impact, suggesting that bond investors are worried about more than just price pressures from the war in Iran. Other contributing factors include: the potential for further expansion of the already massive public debt burden, the impact of the artificial intelligence investment boom, and the increasing likelihood that central banks such as the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates rather than lower them.
Strategists at ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays all emphasize that a common assumption is that the recent rise in some long-term yields will not be fully reversed even if inflation triggered by rising oil prices subsides. This means that even after the conflict ends, market borrowing costs may remain near multi-year highs, continuing to put pressure on governments and the economy. (Jinshi)
