According to BlockBeats, on May 25, JPMorgan Chase stated in its latest report that although this is not its baseline scenario, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise to 9,000 points by mid-2027, driven by the continuation of the technology capital expenditure cycle, the expansion of AI-related profit contributions, and improved market risk appetite.
The agency believes the market may currently be underestimating the probability of this upside scenario. If the index reaches 9000 points, it would imply an upside of approximately 20% from current levels. The report states that the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors remain the core variables driving further index gains, particularly whether AI investment can continue to translate into corporate revenue and profit growth, which will determine whether US stocks can enter the next upward phase.
However, there are significant differences of opinion within the market. The mainstream view on Wall Street is that after a rapid rebound from its March lows, US stocks are likely to enter a period of consolidation in the short term. The continued rise in global bond yields will suppress household consumption and corporate investment, thereby dragging down economic growth. The energy shock triggered by the situation in Iran, pushing up inflation and fuel prices, has also become a key risk factor for central banks worldwide.
Furthermore, historically, sustained high returns over multiple years are difficult to maintain in the long term. Melissa Brown, Managing Director of Investment Decision Research at SimCorp, cites long-term market statistics to point out that since 1926, the US stock market has only achieved four consecutive years of annualized returns exceeding 15% three times, a highly rare occurrence.
Brown also pointed out that after three consecutive years of annualized returns exceeding 20%, the average return in the fourth year was only 3.9%, far below the historical average of 11.8%. She acknowledged that historical data cannot definitively determine this year's trend, and AI-related sectors still have the potential to drive the market higher. However, if this year does indeed see low double-digit growth, the likelihood of the market continuing to rise next year will further decrease.
