Wintermute: Bitcoin's key support level is in the $75,000-$76,000 range; the market structure has not completely deteriorated.

According to Mars Finance, Wintermute reported that the macroeconomic environment improved significantly last week. Brent crude oil prices fell 9% due to easing tensions in Iran, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.5%, and US stocks rose for the eighth consecutive week, reaching a record high, easing energy-driven inflationary pressures. However, consumer concerns persisted. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the May manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high, and input costs rose to their highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence of commodity inflation. The minutes of the Fed's April meeting also signaled that "if inflation remains stubborn, further policy tightening may be necessary," and the market has not yet fully priced in hawkish expectations. In the tech sector, Nvidia delivered explosive earnings: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, with data center business growing by 92%, and the company announced an $80 billion share buyback and a 25-fold increase in dividends. More importantly, its Q2 guidance implicitly assumed zero revenue from Chinese data centers, implying stronger actual AI demand. However, the market reaction was unusually lukewarm, with the stock price barely moving in after-hours trading, reflecting that AI trading has entered a "perfectly priced" phase, where simply exceeding expectations is no longer enough to drive the market. This is a significant warning sign for risk assets, including the crypto market—if AI momentum weakens, weak consumer spending, sticky inflation, and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve will once again dominate the market narrative. Compared to the strong performance of US stocks, the crypto market has clearly lagged behind. BTC hovered around $76,000, and ETH fell to $2,140, neither following the rise in risk assets. Over the past two weeks, BTC spot ETFs have seen outflows exceeding $2 billion, indicating a significant cooling of institutional funds, with marginal risk appetite returning to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continued to weaken and hit a 10-month low, while one of the few assets bucking the trend was HYPE, which saw a record $25.5 million in ETF inflows in a single day, with signs of continuous accumulation by large institutional wallets. The current market structure hasn't completely deteriorated; long-term holders are still increasing their positions, and trading platform reserves remain low. However, short-term price movements are turning negative. BTC's key support level is currently between $75,000 and $76,000. If this level is breached, the market could quickly retrace to the $70,000 to $72,000 area; if it holds, there's still a chance to retest $80,000.