NYDIG: Bitcoin's decline is due to a combination of factors, including AI, tech IPOs, quantum computing, and the sale of Strategy.

According to CoinDesk, Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, stated that the Bitcoin decline is not due to a single reason but rather a combination of factors. The AI sector continues to drain funds from the crypto market as investors prepare for large tech IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, requiring institutions to raise cash or reduce existing positions. The US Treasury Secretary's claim of seizing approximately $1 billion in Iranian-related crypto assets has raised concerns about government intervention in the digital asset market. The threat of quantum computing has once again become a focus; while Strategy's sale of 32 BTC is negligible in terms of supply, its psychological impact is greater. Cipolaro pointed out that on-chain metrics show several indicators approaching historical lows, with the MVRV ratio dropping to 1.2 and the profitable supply ratio recently falling below 50%. However, the current 53% retracement is far lower than the previous cycle's 75%-90% levels, and only 242 days from the peak. This suggests either institutional adoption has fundamentally altered Bitcoin's cyclical behavior, or the market has not yet truly entered a capitulation phase.