Market sentiment has turned into extreme panic.
Written by: Mahe, Foresight News
On June 6th, BTC briefly fell below the $60,000 mark, hitting a low of $59,130. On June 8th, the price rebounded to around $63,000. Although the price has recovered several thousand dollars, the previous breach of this key psychological level still dealt a heavy blow to market confidence and sentiment. Currently, its fear index is 15, indicating extreme market panic. Most Altcoin followed suit, experiencing a deep pullback along with the broader market.
Is now a good time to buy the dips the dip? Institutions and traders have offered their opinions.
Glassnode co-founder: $46,000 to $54,000 is the key bottom range.
Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, stated that Bitcoin has retraced approximately 50% from its all-time high. On-chain data shows that BTC is currently trading near a key support zone formed by the median price ($64,100) and the 200-week moving average ($61,700). Historically, Bitcoin has only traded below this level about 7% of the time.
From a long-term valuation model perspective, below the 200-week moving average are, in order, the realized price (approximately $54,000), CVDD (approximately $46,200), the equilibrium price (approximately $40,000), and the Delta price (approximately $35,000). Historically, bear market bottoms have all reached this cost range before reversing, with CVDD considered the most accurate bottom anchor in history. According to current model calculations, $46,000 to $54,000 constitutes a more probable bottom area, while $35,000 to $40,000 represents a deep capitulation zone under extreme panic scenarios, historically accounting for less than 3% of trading days.
However, as the Bitcoin market matures, the magnitude of cyclical pullbacks is showing a narrowing trend. Previous bear markets saw maximum declines of 85%, 84%, and 77% respectively, while the current round has only fallen about 50% from its all-time high. This suggests that further downside is still possible, but a more probable bottom is likely in the $46,000 to $54,000 range. If a rebound occurs, $75,000 to $79,000 will be the first significant recovery area, with stronger resistance levels around the 50-week moving average at approximately $93,000 and previous all-time highs.
NYDIG Global Head of Research: AI is drawing away a large amount of crypto funds
In a research report, Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, stated that he believes the overlap between AI and crypto investors is far greater than many realize. Both attract investors seeking exposure to emerging technologies and excess returns. As AI-related stocks continue to outperform the market, capital flows and rotates out of the crypto market. Investors are also preparing for what could be the largest tech IPO cycle in years. Quantum computing and Strategy&'s sale of BTC have also exacerbated market concerns.
In his report, Greg Cipolaro stated that several indicators are approaching levels historically associated with major bottoms. Bitcoin's MVRV ratio has fallen to 1.2, and the percentage of profitable supply has recently slipped below 50%, another indicator often associated with capitulation. However, the current pullback is still relatively mild by historical standards. He noted that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 53% from its peak ($126,000 in October), far shallower than the 75%-90% pullbacks of previous cycles. Whether a bottom has been formed will likely depend on whether institutional demand has structurally altered the cycle or merely postponed a deeper readjustment.
Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Asset Research: Bitcoin's bottom has almost been formed
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin's bottom is "almost complete," and the current price range may represent a long-awaited buying opportunity for investors. A key trigger for the recent decline was Strategy's sale of 32 BTC, but based on historical experience from the end of 2022, Strategy is likely to quickly conduct a much larger buyback, potentially reaching 10 to 100 times the previous sale. If this buying is confirmed, it will be a significant signal that the market has bottomed out.
Strive CEO: Bitcoin hits 200-week moving average (fifth time in history), the previous four times were perfect buy the dips opportunities.
Matt Cole, CEO of asset management firm Strive, told CNBC's Squawk Box Europe that Bitcoin has touched its 200-week moving average (the fifth time in history), with the previous four instances being "perfect buy the dips opportunities." He also emphasized that Bitcoin's fundamentals have "never been better" and viewed this touch of the 200-week moving average as a historic buying opportunity.
Trader Eugene: Has temporarily withdrawn from the crypto market and shifted his focus to US stocks; will not attempt to buy the dips in Bitcoin again.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he has essentially withdrawn from the cryptocurrency market since May 13th of this year, shifting his focus to stock market research. He believes that the stock market is more attractive than the current crypto market in terms of research depth, cognitive challenges, and trading and investment opportunities. Based on his assessment of the industry's current state, he expects to maintain this strategy for the foreseeable future, continuing to monitor crypto industry developments without actively participating in trading.
Eugene further stated that he has no plans to return to the crypto market unless extremely attractive risk-reward opportunities emerge, and he hasn't seen such conditions appear yet. He believes the trajectory of the crypto market is diminishing its appeal as a trading and investment arena, so he will remain focused on the traditional stock market in the short term. Regarding Strategy, Eugene believes the risks are only just beginning to emerge. He stated that even though Strategy has recently sold more Bitcoin, it's only postponing the problem, not truly resolving it. He is not optimistic about long positions in Bitcoin until the strong correlation between Strategy and Bitcoin is broken. Regarding the market bottom, he admitted he couldn't predict it, but he has stopped trying to "catch a falling knife"buy the dips fishing.
Trader Killa: Now is a good time to buy.
Trader Killa tweeted during the Bitcoin drop on June 6th that it was a generational buying opportunity. On June 8th, he stated that BTC had entered its "final phase" and "final extension," and that he had already committed 90% of his position. Furthermore, Killa noted that the "protective buy wall" that appeared during the weekend's crash had not yet been withdrawn, and he believed the likelihood of a rapid move to these support levels in the short term was low. Killa is a quantitative trader focused on BTC and predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025.
Analyst Darkfost: Bitcoin has entered an extremely undervalued zone.
According to analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin has retraced below the 4% Fibonacci retracement level in the Power Law model, entering an extremely undervalued range. Historically, it has only been at this valuation level 4% of the time. Darkfost emphasizes that this is a suitable time to build long-term positions, not a short-term price prediction.
Polymarket data: There is a 72% probability that BTC will fall below $55,000.
According to the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of BTC falling below $45,000 is 41%, below $50,000 is 56%, and below $55,000 is 72%. The probability of falling below $40,000 is 31%, and the probability of falling below $35,000 is only 21%.
Most market participants currently believe that the probability of BTC falling below $35,000 to $40,000 is not high.
