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ToggleThe world's most powerful space empire has officially arrived on Wall Street. SpaceX, the space technology giant eagerly anticipated globally, will officially begin trading on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange today (September 12th), with the stock code "SPCX". SpaceX previously set its offering price at $135 per share, issuing approximately 555.6 million Class A common shares, successfully raising a staggering $75 billion and pushing the company's total valuation to an astonishing $1.77 trillion, unsurprisingly sealing the crown as the world's largest IPO in history.
However, due to SpaceX's extremely low initial free float (only about 4.3%) and its unusually phased, tiered unlocking design, the stock price of this space behemoth is bound to fluctuate wildly after its IPO. According to data compiled by @OdailyChina and publicly available information, investors who are considering participating or are currently observing should pay close attention to the following four key time points that will influence the influx of funds and the distribution of shares.
Node 1: Trading begins today! Quotes will be available starting at 9:50 AM Eastern Time.
SpaceX officially listed today and simultaneously began trading on Nasdaq (including Nasdaq Texas). It's worth noting its precise opening timeline: pre-market order matching began at 9:50 AM Eastern Time (9:50 PM Taipei Time); subsequently, it officially became eligible for public trading at 10:00 AM Eastern Time (10:00 PM Taipei Time). Due to the extreme scarcity of tradable shares in the initial listing phase, coupled with the expected settlement of the greenshoe option on June 15th, volatility on the first day of trading is expected to be among the highest in the overall market.
Node Two: Rapid Entry in Early July! Aiming for Nasdaq 100, Welcoming Billions in Magnesium Funds
Approximately 15 trading days after its listing (expected to fall around July 6th to July 7th), SpaceX will receive its first major positive development since its IPO. Due to its massive market capitalization, it is expected to meet Nasdaq's "Fast-Track" review period rules, specifically designed for super-IPOs. If it successfully passes the review, SpaceX will be swiftly included in the Nasdaq 100 Index. At that time, massive passive funds tracking this index globally (such as QQQ) will be legally and contractually forced to collectively build positions in a short period. The market anticipates a massive influx of passive funds, ranging from $8 billion to $18 billion, becoming the strongest driving force supporting the medium-term upward trend of SpaceX's stock price.
Node 3: First earnings report in mid-August! Wall Street publicly scrutinizes three key areas.
SpaceX is expected to release its first quarterly financial report since its IPO (Q2) in mid-August (around August 11). This marks the first time this previously highly secretive private company will fully disclose its financial statements under the Wall Street spotlight for public scrutiny. Investors should focus on three key operational metrics: first, the actual profitability of Starlink and its user growth bottlenecks; second, Starship's R&D burn rate in the lead-up to commercialization; and finally, whether there has been any substantial progress on the "future major equity issuance" or "potential artificial intelligence (AI) asset mergers" that were vaguely mentioned in the prospectus.
Node 4: 48 Hours After the Earnings Report! First Wave of "Step-by-Step Unlocking" Selling Pressure Test
Within 48 hours of the Q2 earnings call on August 11, SpaceX will see its first major unlocking since its listing. To avoid a massive sell-off at a single point in time, SpaceX has abandoned the traditional 180-day single unlocking and instead adopted a tiered design, releasing approximately 7% at intervals. However, in the first unlocking in mid-August, the market expects to release as much as 10% to 15% of actual internal holdings (including employee stock options and shares from previous asset swaps).
It's worth noting a hedging clause: if the stock price performs strongly after listing, consistently exceeding the IPO price by 30% (i.e., remaining above $175.5), an additional 10% of the shares will be released from lock-up, pushing the initial selling pressure to 30%. As for CEO Elon Musk's 42% stake and 85% voting rights, they are subject to the strictest 366-day lock-up protection, meaning they won't be fully released until June 2027. This complex and sophisticated design foreshadows an extremely severe test of share turnover and selling pressure for the US stock market starting in August.
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