The probability of the US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before 2026 has decreased.
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According to a ME News report on June 15 (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that in the assessment of whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace agreement by June 30, 2026, the probability of "yes" dropped from 54.5% to 34.5%, a decrease of 20.0 percentage points in a single day.
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