Table of Contents
ToggleBitcoin has rebounded from its lows. At 9:25 AM on Sunday (June 15th), BTC was trading at $65,366 , having reached a 24-hour high of $65,923, representing a strong rebound of over 10% from its lowest point of $59,353 on June 6th. ETH was trading at $1,710 , also recovering from its June 6th low of $1,522, a 24-hour increase of 1.34%. The panic selling from last week is slowly being absorbed, but whether the bulls can maintain their momentum depends on the Fed's decision next week.
Air Force Massacre: $325 million liquidated in 24 hours, 70% of which were short positions.
The most direct result of the rebound was the devastating blow to short sellers. According to CoinGlass data, the total liquidation amount in the past 24 hours reached $325.46 million (approximately $325 million USD) , of which long positions accounted for only $93.06 million (approximately 29%), while short positions accounted for a staggering $232 million (71%) , clearly indicating a short squeeze. In the last 12 hours alone, liquidations amounted to $285.96 million, with short positions contributing $219.56 million; the largest single liquidation was $2.46 million USD. After reaching a high of $73,683 in early June, the market's downward correction greatly boosted short sellers' confidence, resulting in this rebound causing them to collectively suffer losses.
Three engines of the rebound: US-Iran peace talks, ETF inflows, and technical oversold conditions.
This rebound did not come out of nowhere; three triggering factors occurred simultaneously:
- US-Iran peace talks anticipated : Trump announced on June 11 that he was canceling the military strike plan against Iran, and on June 13, it was reported that a US-Iran peace agreement could be finalized within 24 hours. Global risk appetite rebounded rapidly, and the US S&P 500 closed up 0.5% at 7,431 on Friday. The SpaceX IPO opening jump further fueled the atmosphere in the technology sector.
- ETF net inflows reversed : Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $85.85 million on June 12, breaking the gloom of five consecutive trading days of net outflows. The week in early June saw the largest single-week outflow in history, approximately $3.4 billion. The signal that institutional funds are re-entering the market after the correction cannot be ignored.
- Technical oversold rebound : BTC fell from a high of $73,683 on June 1st to a low of $59,353 on June 6th, a drop of nearly 20%. The RSI fell into the oversold zone, and short-term bottom-hunting buying accelerated.
But a potential catalyst for a rebound is looming: the FOMC interest rate decision meeting on June 16-17 (tomorrow and the day after) . Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos warned on June 10 that the May CPI data would not support a rate cut, and the Fed's focus has even extended to "whether to restart rate hikes." How far the rebound will go largely depends on Powell's wording.
Other cryptocurrencies: SOL leads the gains, XRP follows closely.
In this rebound, SOL performed the best , reaching $70.71, a 24-hour increase of 2.35% , rebounding more than 15% from the June 6 low of $60.98, with a 24-hour high of $71.73; XRP is at $1.1782 , up 1.93%, with 24-hour highs and lows ranging from $1.1268 to $1.1888, still some distance from the June 1 high of $1.33. Altcoins as a whole followed the trend of BTC, without any obvious independent market movement, and their rebound strength was in line with mainstream cryptocurrencies.
The sentiment remains one of extreme fear; the FOMC will be the real test.
The Fear & Greed Index is 20 (extreme fear) today, up from 18 yesterday and as low as 8 last week. Although the number has rebounded from its low, market sentiment is still far from turning greedy. This combination of "panic among investors yet a price rebound" often indicates that the rebound is not a confirmation of the bottom, but rather a technical correction after overselling.
Key next week: If the FOMC maintains its hawkish rhetoric (hinting at no rate cuts or even a rate hike), this rally in the crypto market could very well be a failure; conversely, if Powell issues a dovish signal, coupled with a US-Iran peace agreement, it's not impossible for BTC to retest the June 1 high of $73,683. Shorts were squeezed today, but the bulls' confidence will be tested on Wednesday.
Related reports
