The market is currently in the final stage of this Bitcoin bear market. The ABC correction structure proposed in early 2026 is progressing as expected: wave A fell to the $60,000–$69,000 range, wave B rebounded to the $80,000–$90,000 range, and peaked around $83,000. The market has now entered the wave C correction phase.
From a sentiment perspective, the Fear & Greed Index has fallen back to historically low levels, showing a high degree of similarity to the bottom structure of the 2022 bear market. Although we are closer to a "trading bottom," cyclical indicators have not yet issued a final reversal signal. In this process, the market's focus is shifting from short-term fluctuations to the conditions for bottom formation and the macroeconomic catalysts that may emerge for the next bull market.
The bear market is entering its final stage: $50,000–$55,000 may become a key area.
From a technical perspective, the top formation in 2025 is highly similar to that of 2021. Both cycles experienced a rapid surge, a drop below the 21-week moving average, and a subsequent rebound before weakening again. Historical experience shows that true bottoms are often accompanied by declining trading volume and narrowing trading ranges, rather than a rapid reversal.
Currently, the Fear & Greed Index is at historically low levels, the Stochastic Oscillator is in deep oversold territory, and Bitcoin's price is approaching two standard deviations below its weekly moving average. The $61,576 level may provide some support. According to the cyclical analysis framework, the final market low has not yet been reached.
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, since the start of the bear market in October 2025, Bitcoin has entered a typical ABC correction structure. With the B-wave rebound ending in mid-May at $83,000, the current C-wave decline is underway, potentially targeting around $50,000, with the low expected around the FIFA World Cup (June 11th to July 19th, 2026). Overall, the $50,000–$55,000 range may become the core bottom area of this bear market.
Peak inflation may become a key catalyst for the next bull market.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the current market environment shares some similarities with that of 2022, with inflation remaining the primary factor suppressing the performance of risky assets. In the previous cycle, the peak of inflation became a crucial turning point for the market, and a similar macroeconomic path may emerge again in this cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $54,591, a key indicator considered important for determining if the market has entered an undervalued phase. Historical experience shows that while prices may briefly dip below this level, they typically don't remain there for long. Meanwhile, cyclical indicators have not yet released bottom confirmation signals, and the actual low point may still need to be confirmed over the next 1 to 3 months.
If prices complete their bottoming process and rise back above the 21-week moving average, while monthly cycle indicators show a positive reversal, then the start of a new upward cycle may be confirmed. Until then, the market will remain in the bottoming-out phase.
Overall, this bear market is nearing its end. The ABC correction structure, cyclical indicators, and the macroeconomic backdrop all point in the same direction: the $50,000–$55,000 range likely corresponds to the value zone of this bear market, while the realized price of $54,591 represents an important long-term reference level. Although the exact timing of the bottom still depends on inflation trends and confirmation from cyclical indicators, historical experience shows that true bottoms often don't present obvious buying opportunities. As inflationary pressures gradually ease and cyclical signals improve, the next bull market is likely to begin near the $50,000–$55,000 range.
The above viewpoints are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Investing in the market involves risks; please exercise caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of your personal circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
