According to Odaily Odaily, Bernstein stated that Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.
Data shows that the daily trading volume in the FIFA World Cup prediction market rose from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new record and exceeding the $1.4 billion trading volume during the previous Super Bowl.
Analysts point out that since its launch, the prediction market has become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing product lines. The firm projects that Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 286%, and is expected to account for 17% of transaction-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.
Bernstein believes that Robinhood's partnership with Rothera, an exchange and clearinghouse regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is one of its competitive advantages. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has traded approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts say Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capabilities; its large user base, $0.01 commission per contract, and up to 50% discounts for Gold members help drive user engagement.
Furthermore, Bernstein stated that competition in the prediction market are intensifying, including Polymarket's launch of private company event contracts and Kalshi's introduction of cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm predicts that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to the prediction market and drive an increase of $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer trading volume across the industry. (The Block)
