The market over the weekend saw a near-unanimous return of risk appetite.
Major indices rallied across the board, with technology and precious metals rising sharply; the energy sector suffered a severe blow (CL -1.79%, Brent -1.23%, NATGAS -0.7%), which is the most direct footnote to the narrative of "the war is over".
Crude oil & US stock index
At 07:31 on June 14, Fars News Agency, citing sources close to the negotiating team, reported that Iran had not yet made a final decision on the proposed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Oil prices subsequently rose to $82.6.
At 19:51 on the same day, YNET further revealed that Trump might be willing to immediately lift the maritime blockade against Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, rather than proceeding gradually as currently agreed.
At 9:30 PM, the decisive moment arrived. Trump sent a message from Truth Terminal stating, "The agreement with Iran is complete," "Authorizes the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade," and "Authorizes the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz." Simultaneously, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister announced that it would announce an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on multiple fronts (including Lebanon) starting that evening.
It's worth noting that crude oil prices had already fallen to TradeXYZ's weekend price threshold at this point, meaning the market had "priced in" this news in advance.
The S&P 500 subsequently touched $7,530.
The market will likely have to wait for a while before the peace agreement is officially signed (on the 19th).
precious metals
At the same moment the agreement was announced at 21:30, gold jumped from about 4,221 to a high of 4,337, and silver rose from about 67.85 to a high of 70.83, before stabilizing at the high levels.
Individual stocks/ETFs
Several stocks, including NBIS, RKLB, and LITE, performed strongly over the weekend.
NBIS: Inclusion in the Nasdaq index on June 12; Compass Point raised its target price, citing strong growth in its AI cloud business – Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million, a year-over-year increase of 683.9%.
RKLB: Also included in the Nasdaq index on June 12, and boosted by the spillover effect of SpaceX valuation sentiment.
LITE: JPMorgan gave a price target of $1,130 in its report on June 11.
SPCX also performed strongly. In a tweet over the weekend, Musk stated, "I think SpaceX might be able to achieve about $1 trillion in revenue by 2030," and SPCX rose 0.56% on TradeXYZ within minutes.
Overall, the impact of the more than three months of war on the market is beginning to dissipate. The agreement will not be formally signed until June 19, and Israel's actions during this period are the biggest variable.
This Wednesday's Warsh meeting, the Fed's first appearance, and expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike will also have a significant impact on the market.
