SpaceX shares are receiving warnings about the risk of a sharp decline just days after setting a record on the Nasdaq. Traders are comparing SPCX to the volatility of Tesla when it went public in 2010, when SpaceX's market Capital approached $3 trillion.
This comparison has Chia market observers. Some predict a sharp correction in stock prices as selling pressure increases, while others believe that the limited supply of shares to the public will help keep prices high for months to come.
Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) stock performance after IPO. Source: TradingViewA record-breaking debut with an ambitious valuation.
SpaceX listed its shares at $135 on June 12, 2024, and raised approximately $75 billion, far surpassing Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $25.6 billion, becoming the largest IPO in history . Immediately, SpaceX became one of the most valuable companies in the United States.
The price of SPCX subsequently rose steadily above its initial opening price , trading around $213.95 at the time of writing, an increase of approximately 56%.
Kalshi's market forecast predicts SpaceX will reach a valuation of $3 trillion in after-hours trading, based on revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025.
BREAKING: SpaceX reached a $3 trillion valuation in after-hours tradingThe company's revenue in 2025 was $18.7 billion
— Kalshi Finance (@Kalshi_Finance) June 16, 2026
This valuation far surpasses the previous record of $2 trillion and is also higher than any valuation Tesla had when it first went public.
Why are some traders worried SpaceX stock could plummet?
Expert Ted Pillows summarized the pessimistic view by saying that SPCX is "repeating" the path Tesla took in its early days. Another famous article also suggested that Elon Musk used the same tactic at Tesla when it launched in 2010.
ELON MUSK PULLED THIS SAME MOVE 16 YEARS AGOLook at this closely:Tesla IPO (2010) – pumped hard, then dropped 70% over the next few monthsMost people only remember what happened years laterSpaceX IPO (2026) – just ran the exact same opening moveElon has done this once… https://t.co/IaNC8H4Y6L pic.twitter.com/cU2zMxJFmV
— bee🐝 (@0xbeehive) June 16, 2026
In reality, Tesla's history is more complex than what social media portrays. Tesla initially closed its first auction $17 higher than its asking price, a staggering 40.5% increase, then doubled in value within just a few months, before plummeting nearly 25% in a single week.
By the end of 2011, Tesla's stock had only increased by 7.3%, and never dropped as much as 70% in the early period before multiplying 300 times in subsequent years.
“SpaceX SPCX is following the same path as Tesla TSLA. First, a 60%-70% surge, then a sharp 50% correction,” Ted Pillows commented .
Investor Jo Bhakdi believes that correction pressure will emerge from August 2024, when volume is limited, index funds will be forced to buy, while valuations will then be nearly 90 times projected revenue for 2026.
CNBC's Jim Cramer also Chia his concerns, saying he liked the company but disliked the "hype" surrounding the stock price surge when almost no one was willing to sell.
Maybe it's okay to you, but I would hate to see a meme stock–what SpaceX stock has become–walked to the size of Nvidia over a series of overnight moves with no sellers. But that seems to be the goal. Maybe early release of those who want to go?? I am uncomfortable watching a stock…
— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) June 16, 2026
Reasons why stock prices may maintain their upward trend for longer.
Conversely, some other analysts warn that betting on a price crash is a misunderstanding of supply. Investment consultant Thierry Borgeat argues that the very scarcity of shares driving prices up will also help curb downward pressure.
“It’s true that stocks are very expensive by all traditional criteria… But stock prices don’t fall just because they ‘should’ fall. Prices fall when there are more sellers than buyers… Scarcity always has a two-way effect,” commented CFA Borgeat.
Demand for SPCX is enormous. Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg reports that the number of ETFs holding SPCX has increased from 4 to over 120 in just a few days.
With major shareholders restricted from selling and retail investors reluctant to take profits , there are still more buyers than sellers — something that happened with Tesla when its valuation was questioned a few years ago.
The real challenge will come in August 2024, when shareholders may be allowed to sell their initial "locked" shares, thereby increasing the supply to the market.
Until then, SpaceX stock seemed to be rising primarily based on market demand and sentiment, rather than intrinsic factors, while Musk's immense wealth remained the focus of attention.
