Chainalysis: Crypto fraud losses could reach $17 billion.

Chainalysis estimates that revenue from cryptocurrency scams in 2025 could increase from at least $14 billion to as much as $17 billion as the involved addresses continue to be identified.

A new report shows that the Medium payout to scam addresses has increased by 253% year-on-year, while scams using AI are 4.5 times more profitable than those without AI.

Crypto scam revenue could be even higher in 2025.

Chainalysis estimates that on-chain scams generated at least $14 billion in 2025 and could rise to $17 billion. This higher forecast is subject to the continued identification of wallets involved in scams.

In a report released on June 17th, the company stated that current figures do not fully reflect the entire scam network. As more fraudulent addresses are added, the estimated total revenue may be further adjusted upwards.

How does phishing approval work?

Approval phishing is a form of deception where users are tricked into signing authorizations for malicious smart contracts, allowing fraudsters to withdraw assets from their wallets. Users often believe they are confirming a normal transaction such as a swap or Token transfer.

The danger of this mechanism is that access can extend beyond the initial transaction approval. Assets can then be transferred at a later time without further confirmation from the victim.

Chainalysis suggests that this type of scam is often part of broader fraudulent investment campaigns, which may involve psychological manipulation, fake advisors, and directing users away from regulated exchanges to self-custodial wallets.

Common signs of investment scams

Chainalysis points out several recurring patterns in the cases, including users offering pre-scripted explanations, suddenly buying large amounts of crypto despite having no prior activity in digital assets, and being pressured by "mentors" to execute the trades immediately.

These signs often indicate that transactions are not occurring according to the user's natural process. This is why phishing campaigns can be detected early if the flow of funds, wallet addresses, and interaction patterns are closely monitored.

Law enforcement campaigns are targeting phishing networks.

Chainalysis states that approval phishing campaigns often reveal vulnerabilities because fraudsters frequently reuse the same wallet, the same receiving contract, and the same withdrawal infrastructure across multiple victims. This makes tracing the perpetrators more feasible.

Operation Spincaster, launched in 2024, has processed over 7,000 leads and helped authorities recover approximately $162 million in losses related to approval phishing. Chainalysis also reported that one potential victim was warned in time before losing a six-figure sum.

In another operation, Operation Atlantic, agencies in the UK, Canada, and the US identified more than 20,000 victims, froze over $12 million in suspected criminal funds, and traced an additional $45 million in cryptocurrency stolen from related schemes.

AI is making crypto fraud more efficient.

Chainalysis reports that scams using AI generate 4.5 times more profit than those not using AI. The company doesn't specify which tools are used, but notes that AI can be combined with automated content or other supporting techniques.

This trend shows that fraudsters are becoming increasingly adept at targeting, constructing scam scenarios, and expanding their operations across multiple platforms. For users, the risk lies not only in a single transaction but also in the underlying psychological chain .

Summary

Chainalysis is showing that cryptocurrency scams will remain a significant risk in 2025, with approval phishing and AI-powered tools making fraudulent campaigns harder to detect. Current data also suggests the scale of the damage could increase as more involved addresses are identified.