So, swing short from 28.4K last week, is it "technically" invalidated? Well not yet by "standard" invalidation. However, normally I consider idea to already be wrong if price doesn't start moving convincingly in my direction within a relatively short amount of time.
In the case of a swing trade with higher timeframe move in mind, I would say a few days is the cut off. If after about a week price not really separating from entry and going back to it, I start to assume I'm wrong on idea.
What is risk? Risk is that you were just too early and after getting out of position price finally goes as you had hoped.
So what do? Well, in my case I trade on several timeframes, so I never have only a single trade going and just waiting idly for price to do what I hope. That's just hoping and wishful thinking.
It's ok to sometimes miss a top or a bottom of a move on whatever timeframe if you're still capturing gains in other (usually smaller) timeframes both ways.
So yeah that short probably wrong already in my book, even if the technical invalidation of idea when I posted the idea hasn't yet come to pass.
There's a difference between patience waiting for a setup and patience aka hoping price does what you want when you're already in.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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