The crypto market reacted positively after the Hong Kong securities regulator announced that it expects retail investors to be able to trade mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH from June 1. Bitcoin rose more than 2% to $27,500 during the Asian session, while Ethereum rose nearly 2% to $1,851.91, according to data from Twitter terminals. As of press time, the crypto market has returned to calm, with Bitcoin back trading around $2,7200, up 1% in 24 hours, and Ethereum remaining at $1,850, within a narrow range of 2%.
Rebuild a fintech hub
The new move is a major development in Hong Kong's attempt to rebuild its image as a fintech hub, including the pursuit of Web3, as moves to allow retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies could spur increased Liquidity and market activity.
Some in the industry believe the new regulatory regime will lead to a new wave of crypto innovation. In 2021, a document in mainland China banned all forms of encrypted transactions, and web3 entrepreneurs fled to more web3-friendly jurisdictions, such as Singapore. As Hong Kong extends its welcome to digital assets, many founders are weighing options for setting up companies in Hong Kong. Western companies also see Hong Kong as a potential outpost for their Asian expansion.
Bitui previously reported that Bart Stephens, founder and managing partner of San Francisco-based venture capital firm Blockchain Capital , said it was considering relocating to several popular international encryption centers amid U.S. authorities cracking down on the industry. Stephens said: "Other jurisdictions such as the UK, the UAE and Hong Kong are actively attracting US entrepreneurs and venture capital firms. Cryptocurrency is a global industry based on the concept of decentralization, so we are exploring the decentralization of our finances. and human capital".
But some industry figures have expressed hesitation about Hong Kong's opening-up policy. They believe that as a financial center in Asia, Hong Kong has historically not had a vibrant tech ecosystem and is too costly for most start-ups, and the types of crypto businesses Hong Kong attracts may be those that serve and interface with traditional finance company.
Economist and author of the "Crypto is Macro Now" newsletter Noelle Acheson said in her blog that Hong Kong's decision to give the green light to retail investors does not mean that there will be a surge in demand for cryptocurrencies, as local traders may have already passed the exit. Onshore sites enter the market. "This news doesn't mean that a lot of retail buying power will come into the market in early June...however, we may see a pick-up in June volumes," Acheson noted.
Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau called Hong Kong's attempt to become a cryptocurrency hub "very aggressive." "It will continue to attract social attention and attract more companies to set up offices in Hong Kong. It is difficult to measure the exact impact, but it has long-term effects on capital flow and talent flow," the analyst said.
Will it stimulate Bitcoin to continue to rise?
Whether Bitcoin will continue to rise depends on a number of factors, including regulatory changes, market sentiment, technological advancements, macroeconomic trends, and more. Hong Kong's new policy has been priced in by the market. The current lack of major news to stimulate the market, regulatory issues and macroeconomic uncertainties, including the ongoing US debt ceiling deadlock, all of which have made investors panic.
According to Secure Digital Markets, a Canadian digital asset Liquidity provider, from a technical perspective, Bitcoin needs to clear the Head and Shoulders (H&S) trendline resistance and the 20-day simple moving average of $27,500 to trade. Continue to gain momentum.
"As long as prices remain below the neckline [horizontal trendline] of this [H&S] pattern and the 20-day moving average, we forecast further declines to $25,250 and possibly $24,000," the analyst said.
In terms of longer-term forecasts, crypto analyst Inmortal laid out a number of possibilities for bitcoin prices over the next one to two years. One scenario (60-70% probability) is that Bitcoin may be range-bound before falling, with the price fluctuating in the $20,000-30,000 range, and the rise will start from the fourth quarter of 2023. Analysts predict that it will break through the $30,000 level and head towards $48,000 during this period.
In the second scenario (50% probability), Inmortal said that it does not rule out that BTC retests the $25,000 level after a long period of consolidation around $29,000, followed by a rise between late 2023 and early 2024.
The third scenario is a "roller coaster" pattern (30% probability - 40% probability), a local top breakout followed by a decline that could break $30,000 in late 2023 or early 2024. In this case, the next break above $30,000 could occur in late 2023 and early 2024 and could be the starting point for further gains.
With a week to go until the end of May, bitcoin and ethereum are likely to end the year with their worst monthly performances so far, down 7.6% and 3.1%, respectively, on a month-to-date basis.
For more information, welcome to join:
Bitpush Twitter: https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN
BitPush TG communication group: https://t.me/BitPushCommunity
Bitui TG subscription: https://t.me/bitpush
This article is from Bitpush: https://www.bitpush.news/articles/4440388 , please indicate the source when reprinting
