Last week, Bitcoin price showed some recovery compared to recent weeks. Starting on the 13th, when there were concerns about an altcoin bomb from FTX, it broke the $26,000 level and appears to be maintaining the price range until the weekend.
As the market had feared, the U.S. state court in Delaware allowed FTX to sell to repay debt on the 13th (local time). However, the sale amount per share was $100 million, which was smaller than the previous sale plan, and FTX's influence appears to have diminished as it announced that it would minimize price changes due to asset sales.
While Bitcoin maintained the $26,000 level, several altcoins showed signs of rapid progress. The most representative project was Friend.Tech . Since the beginning of last week, transaction volume has surged to over $12 million per day, and eventually, due to the FriendTech effect, even BASE, the Ethereum layer 2 solution, has recorded the highest number of daily transactions .
Cryptocurrencies that have been suffering from steady selling, such as Polygon (MATIC), Litecoin (LTE), and APE Coin (APE), also showed a slight rebound as a buying trend came in for the first time in a long time.
Sam Altman's World Coin (WLD), the head of OpenAI, an artificial intelligence development company famous for ChatGPT, suffered the humiliation of breaking the $1 mark on the 11th. However, it rebounded immediately afterward, showing an increase of nearly 50% at one point. As of 2 am on the 18th, it is hovering around the $1.27 level.
It was a week in which wallet companies' actions also stood out. Metamask, which ranks first in global market share, introduced a customized wallet function called ‘Snaps’ on the 13th. Using this feature, external developers can build the features they want to add to MetaMask in the form of an app. You will also be able to put Bitcoin into MetaMask, an Ethereum wallet.
Circle, which had been watching USDC's market share decline over the past few months, has taken out a 'sword' for the first time in a long time. On the 17th, we began trial operation of Web3 wallet with Grab, which is considered the No. 1 ‘super app’ in Southeast Asia. An e-wallet that allows ride hailing, food delivery, and digital payments using USDC was added in the form of a tab within the Grab app.
Lido Finance has opened a bridgehead for entry into the Cosmos blockchain with Neutron, a cross-chain smart contract platform, and Axella, an interoperability protocol. The 'Wraped ST Ether (wstETH)' token was launched so that stETH tokens issued through Ethereum staking can be used on the Cosmos blockchain. Cosmos opened another way for massive amounts of Ethereum staking funds to flow, but it did not have a significant impact on the price.
On the 16th, just before the weekend, news broke that the Japanese government plans to allow startups to issue cryptocurrency instead of stocks. It is unclear what they were doing in 2017 when everyone else was allowing ICOs, and now they are allowing a similar system, but this is also expected to be a long-term positive for 'Made in Japan' coins.
On the regulatory side, bad news poured in one after another. First, Binance US, the US corporation of Binance, laid off one-third of its employees, including the CEO, on the 13th (local time). In particular, the fact that Binance US can no longer do anything in the United States seems to have played a role in the CEO's resignation.
The situation at Binance, the headquarters, is not very good either. Two days later, on the 15th, two more senior Binance executives left the company, bringing the total number of senior executives to 11 in recent months.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) found a new ‘hobby’. This is suing NFT projects for violating securities laws. On the 29th of last month, a fine of $6 million was imposed on 'Impact Theory' and all NFTs were destroyed, and on the 13th, a fine of $1 million was imposed on the NFT animation series 'Stalker Cats 2'. Somehow, as more voices point out SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's inadequacies, Chairman Gensler seems to become more assertive.
FOMC interest rate decision in the early morning of the 21st... Bitcoin's direction appears to be set for the time being
This week's Bitcoin price is expected to set its direction for the time being according to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision for September, which will be announced in the early morning of the 21st.
The current US policy interest rate is 5.25-5.5%. Last July, the Federal Reserve raised the base interest rate by 0.25%p, reaching the highest level in 22 years. As a result, there are predictions that there will be a break in September.
However, recent inflation, which is one of the biggest determinants of policy interest rates, is not very good. Above all, international oil prices continue to rise, and thanks to this, the U.S. producer price index for August, most recently announced on the 14th, exceeded expectations and rose 1.6% compared to the previous year. August retail sales also rose 0.6%, well above Wall Street forecasts.
First of all, according to FedWatch data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market predicts a 98% chance of interest rates being frozen in September and a 2% chance of an interest rate hike. However, the likelihood of an increase in the next FOMC meeting in November was 27.1%. The proportion of people who expect interest rates to rise on the next scheduled date, December 13th, is 34.4%. This means that even if September is frozen, there is still a possibility of a price increase.
So what will happen to the price of Bitcoin? In relation to this, I would like to briefly introduce the contents of the report released by investment bank Mizuho on the 12th. Mizuho analyzed that the 'fear of rising alienation (FOMO)' among American individual investors buying Bitcoin is decreasing. Even if the price of Bitcoin rises, individual investors are not as active in purchasing as before. Based on this, Mizuho predicted the target stock price of Coinbase, which engages in 'commission trading', at $27, which is 1/3 of the current stock price.
The way to thaw the frozen investment sentiment of individual Bitcoin investors is to show a significant rise in the Bitcoin price. Conversely, this also means that if Bitcoin does not show any significant momentum in the current situation, the investment confidence of individual investors will inevitably cool down. It should be a week to pay close attention to what news will provide enough spark to move the Bitcoin price.
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