Why do people say Bitcoin is expected to exceed $100,000 next year? How to arrange the market in an orderly manner when the bull market is approaching?
Today, Bitcoin broke through the US$42,000 mark (currently trading at US$41,687), hitting its highest price since May 2022, and surpassed Berkshire Hathaway to return to the top 10 assets in the world by market capitalization.
Bitcoin’s rise has exceeded expectations, making crypto users exclaim that the bull market was caught off guard. Since crypto media Cointelegraph falsely reported that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Spot ETF was approved on October 16, the price of Bitcoin has risen from US$28,000 to US$41,687, an increase of nearly 50% in less than two months.
2024 is approaching, and many institutions predict that the Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in January 2024. How many US dollars will Bitcoin break through by then? In addition to the Bitcoin spot ETF passing expectations, what other factors are driving the rise of Bitcoin? What do institutions predict the trend of Bitcoin in 2024, and what potential narratives should investors bury?
Bitcoin has risen nearly 50% in two months. What forces are driving it?
An obvious driving factor for Bitcoin's rise is the expected adoption of the Bitcoin Spot ETF. Most of the gains in Bitcoin in the past two months are related to this. Although there is a lot of false news, it has not affected users' enthusiasm for Bitcoin.
Less than half an hour after crypto media Cointelegraph misreported that BlackRock ’s iShares Bitcoin spot ETF was approved on October 16, Bitcoin went from below US$28,000 to above US$30,000, breaking through 30,000 for the first time in two months. dollar mark. Although the rumor was quickly refuted, the price of Bitcoin fell back to $28,000. But a week later, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the . Since this process is one of the necessary procedures for the Bitcoin Spot ETF to enter the market, the market believes that this is the time when the Bitcoin Spot ETF passes a more accurate Xiaoxi, and then Bitcoin hits $35,000, the highest in the past 18 months. .
However, since then, the news has also become a misunderstanding. Barron's editor Joe Light tweeted that BlackRock's "IBTC" disappeared from the official website. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also believed that "IBTC" was told to wait until it was only 10 days away from the realization date. Announce it in a matter of days, not weeks or months. At a time when DTCC was seen as manipulating the market, the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Spot ETF reappeared on the DTCC (Depository Centralized Depository and Clearing Corporation) website list, but the Create/Redeem item was removed from the earliest "Y" becomes "N".
Although the news about the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF is full of misunderstandings, with the continuous actions of giants such as BlackRock and Grayscale, as well as the positive remarks of crypto KOLs, the market is obviously inclined to the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, but it is expected to It will be passed early next year. For example, last week, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart posted on BlackRock is suspected of having met with the SEC to discuss the Bitcoin ETF structure.
Recently, Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson said in an interview at the Fortune Global Forum that she has made a small investment in cryptocurrency and that regulators will approve a Bitcoin spot ETF in due course. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is also “quite optimistic” about the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
In addition to the expected adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the rise may also be related to the sky-high $4 billion settlement between Binance and U.S. regulators . According to the latest report from Matrixport, this settlement once again provides a definite favorable factor for the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF and the rise of Bitcoin. With this plea agreement, expectations for spot Bitcoin ETFs may have been raised to 100% as the entire industry will be forced to adhere to the same rules that traditional financial companies must follow. What’s more, a washout of the industry will strengthen the case for Bitcoin adoption among institutional investors and could make Bitcoin a safe-haven asset in investor portfolios.
As the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, crypto analyst Phyrex (@Phyrex_Ni) said that spot ETFs have driven the rise in BTC prices, and the rising BTC has driven the entry of a lot of external funds, and more funds have activated the market. Fund activity. CoinShares mentioned in its latest weekly report released on November 13 that more than $1 billion has been injected into Bitcoin in just two months.
In addition, MicroStrategy's purchase of $593 million in Bitcoin in November also reflected its bullish attitude towards Bitcoin and may have contributed to the rise of Bitcoin.
Is Bitcoin expected to top $100,000 next year? The driving factors behind
Although the Bitcoin spot ETF may be approved at any point in the future, many analysts say that there is a 90% chance of approval before January 10 next year. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said on the X platform that the approval window for Bitcoin spot ETFs is expected to be between January 5 and 10, 2024. By January 2024, Matrixport also expects the US SEC to approve the Bitcoin ETF in January next year, and expects trading to begin in February or March.
Even if there is no definite news in January, March 15 next year is the deadline for BlackRock’s approval, and the market’s bullish sentiment may continue until the first quarter of 2024. In addition to the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, there are multiple factors expected to boost Bitcoin's rise in 2024.
For example, the Bitcoin halving cycle is expected to occur in April next year. In past history, BTC will start a rapid growth model half a year after the halving. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may theoretically lower borrowing costs, thereby increasing investor capital inflows into high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, causing the price of Bitcoin to rise. At the same time, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may also cause the dollar to depreciate, thereby pushing up the price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
In addition, Matrixport stated in its latest research on "Six Predictions for the Crypto Market in the First Half of 2024" that in the first half of 2024, Circle 's listing, FTX 's winning bid to resume operations, and Ethereum Cancun upgrade will have a positive impact on the industry. impact and push up the price of Bitcoin.
And if the Bitcoin spot ETF is passed next year, will the price of Bitcoin rise by tens of thousands of dollars? Crypto financial services company Matrixport said in a report that if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF is approved by the US SEC, the price of Bitcoin may rise to between US$42,000 and US$56,000. And Bitcoin is expected to exceed US$631.4 million in April 2024 and reach US$125,000 by the end of 2024.
In addition to Matrixport, there are other institutions that have made positive predictions. Standard Chartered Bank analysts have repeatedly stated in reports that Bitcoin will break through to $100,000 by the end of 2024, and even touch $120,000. On the one hand, the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF is a catalyst, and on the other hand, it believes that the Bitcoin circulation velocity is at a historical low, indicating that market sentiment has changed significantly compared with the previous bear market cycle, and Bitcoin holders are no longer willing to sell. , buyers need to seek new supply price points if they want to buy.
Similar to Standard Chartered Bank, Blockstream co-founder and CEO Adam Back said on social media that he believes BTC may reach $100,000 before the next halving. Back also believes that in a bullish scenario, Bitcoin The price of the coin may reach $750,000 to $1 million.
Judging from the possible recent fluctuations, Matrixport believes that Bitcoin may rebound after the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, and plans to reach $45,000 before the end of the year. Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank believe that Bitcoin is expected to rise 67% this year, reaching $50,000.
The bull market is approaching, how to arrange it in an orderly manner?
At the beginning of the next bull market, how to lay out the potential track in an orderly manner. Zonff Partners' recent report "2023 Q3 Web3 Primary Market Review and Track Analysis" provides a comprehensive and clear investment perspective.
Zonff Partners believes that by Q3 of 2023, the potential core tracks in the next bull market cycle have basically emerged in the market, and it will divide the existing main tracks into four categories:
Source: Zonff Partners
The first is the track driven by the legitimacy of Ethereum , such as Ethereum Layer 2 and other Layer 1; cross-chain and interoperability; modularization and data availability; L3/Rollup as a Service/application chain; AA wallet.
The second is that the objective trend appears an inflection point or creates a new asset class . Such as RWA and RWAFi, new stable coins such as PYUSD issued by Paypal, LSD and LSDFi, and the latest hot BTC ecosystem/BRC20.
The third is the expansion of mature tracks . Specifically, it includes Web2.5 games (including Hyper Casual light games, MMO, SLG and other 3A-level heavy games; the game status is synchronized off-chain, and NFT, DID, tokens and other factors are introduced to create an on-chain economic system); DeFi 1.0 period Product expansion, DeFi derivatives trading market, mainly futures perpetual contracts, as well as options, synthetic assets, etc. ; Depin, decentralized infrastructure network; blockchain payment track.
The fourth is to rely on breakthroughs in user scenarios or operational experience to bring large-scale traffic. Specifically, it includes Fully on-chain Game, Automouse World; AI + Web3.0 integration; social and creator economy, TelegramBot and NFT.
Recommended reading "Web3 primary market review and track analysis in the third quarter of 2023: The bull market is progressing, how to layout? 》
In addition to the track capture framework summarized by Zonff Partners, the founder of Nansen also recently shared six major trends that he is optimistic about next year. In addition to RWA and Web3 games, he also said that he is optimistic about NFTs combined with entities, such as Pudgy Penguins toys being launched on Amazon Mall. , decentralized social networking led by friend.tech, etc.
After the return of the bull market, wealth opportunities are emerging in the market and it is also full of FOMO emotions. Crypto users need to do more careful research and choose an investment route that suits them.
