Since the SEC approved the Bitcoin spot ETF this week, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated: after the approval, it reached a highest point of more than $48,000 , and then fell all the way , experiencing a period of plateauing around $46,000. It later fell to the lowest point below $42,000 and is now stable at around $44,500, with a 7-day decline of 1.69%.
Is BTC plummeting because of Grayscale’s crash?
Grayscale is the institution that holds the most BTC . The GBTC established by Grayscale is closed-ended, so there will be a price difference between GBTC and the market price. Last year, the negative premium reached an astonishing 50%. After the spot ETF passed, the funds holding GBTC , you can choose to convert into ETF, which leads to continuous outflow of funds and has negative expectations for BTC.
From the data point of view, the behavior of smashing the market has not occurred ; currently, judging from the marked Grayscale address, Grayscale’s holdings are about 617K Bitcoins, worth about 26.6 billion US dollars, and the outflow of funds in recent days is about 16.7 One hundred million U.S. dollars. In other words, Grayscale was not forced to sell most of the Bitcoins because customers continued to sell GBTC shares. The amount sold still only accounted for a small part.
Grayscale’s current position data.
However, market sentiment has not eased. One possible argument is that not all grayscale addresses are recorded on Arkham, and the recorded grayscale addresses may not be accurate. This statistics may miss some BTC sales and transactions, so the $1.67 billion sell-off may not be accurate. Not precise.
There is an even scarier argument, involving the fees for all Bitcoin spot ETFs. Grayscale’s GBTC is the ETF with the highest management fee:
The current management expense ratio of the ETF.
It can be seen that the rates published by issuers such as Franklin and Bitwise are relatively low, while Grayscale’s fees are among the highest, about 1.5% . If investors are unwilling to submit the 1.5% management fee, they can choose to sell their GBTC shares and switch to other ETFs. Since all ETFs are redeemed in cash, when selling GBTC shares, you cannot choose to sell them for Bitcoin, but can only sell them for US dollars, which will inevitably bring about selling pressure and reduce the price.
This leads to the argument held by many people on Twitter: No selling now does not mean there will be no selling in the future. If more people sell GBTC shares in the future due to fee issues and switch to buying other BTC shares, and due to the sell-off of this If this behavior leads to more people choosing to hold cash and wait and see due to the continuous decline in prices after the sell-off, then it is not ruled out that BTC may fall all the way to below $40,000.
Today's key news
On January 21, FLOW, APE, EUL, 1INCH, AXS, NYM, and INJ tokens will usher in a one-time unlocking node , among which: Injective token INJ will be unlocked at 08:00 on January 21 with 3.67 million pieces (about 1.4 billion), accounting for 4.33% of the circulating supply. The Axie Infinity token AXS will be unlocked at 21:10 on January 18 with 3.43 million pieces (approximately US$28.06 million), accounting for 2.53% of the circulating supply; the ApeCoin token APE will be unlocked at 08:00 on January 17 with 15.6 million pieces. (approximately US$22.78 million), accounting for 4.23% of the circulating supply;
The inscriptions ordi, rats, sols, quark, etc. have soared. There are market rumors that bn will release an inscription wallet next week, or it may be the last chance to escape.
The new public chain sui has soared, and the ecological suiswap, cetus, etc. have soared. Sui subsidizes ecological incentives, and TVL is growing rapidly. January 12-14 is the Move Developer Conference, there will be a big unlock, and there will be a lot of hype before the unlock.
The game sfarm of Sol chain has surged 10 times. Solfatm is similar to the web3 version of Happy Farm. The daily return rate for buying seeds and planting land is 5%. It is essentially a capital disk that is pledged for u gold. At present, 70% of the growth list of Tugou belongs to sol chain, and eth ranks behind.
Thank you for watching. Friends who want to join the exchange group to exchange technology and plan for high-quality currencies can add me on WeChat MCTY1478
