February is the starting point for this year’s global competition cycle in the sports sector.
Written by: Frank, Foresight News
2024 can be said to be a big year for the world's top sports events, from the 2023 Asian Cup (January 12 to February 10), which is in full swing, to the European Cup, known as the "Little World Cup" in the middle of the year ( June 14th to July 14th), to the Paris Olympics that opened in July (July 26th to August 11th), and even the U.S. election on November 5th, major sports & political events throughout the country Year.
Especially the European Cup and Olympic Games that will follow from June to August . As large-scale international sports events that attract global attention, they have huge international influence and fan groups. They will undoubtedly bring great attention to related sports track tokens. Power and room for speculation.
This article aims to briefly sort out the sports tokens worthy of attention, and by reviewing the price trends of related leading tokens during the 2021 European Cup and 2022 World Cup, trying to get a glimpse of the potential transactions behind this year's global events. law.
Which sports category tokens are worth paying attention to?
"What is rolling on the green field is not football, but gold." Tokens related to sports tracks have always been the investment targets with the strongest cyclicality and hype expectations in the crypto world.
If this is divided, it can be roughly divided into three categories: sports public chains (Chiliz, TOPGOAL, etc.), team/star fan tokens (SANTOS, BAR, CITY, etc.), and prediction & gambling related tokens (sports The NFT category is not listed in this article for now).
Sports public chain
Chiliz (CHZ)
The first among them is naturally Chiliz (CHZ). As a sports and entertainment blockchain financial technology provider, Chiliz has been the basic blockchain platform for many football clubs to issue fan tokens, and has launched interactive fan services for the sports and entertainment industry. and rewards app Socios.com.
On Socios.com, fans can purchase CHZ and exchange it for fan tokens of a certain club, and then vote on club affairs. They can even directly participate in management (from jersey pattern design to daily team governance voting) or interact with players. comminicate.
The current market value of token CHZ is approximately US$880 million, and it is also the absolute leader in the sports track with the highest market value.
TOPGOAL(GOAL)
Web3 Football Metaverse Platform TOPGOAL is a sports metaverse platform that allows you to trade genuine digital star cards and participate in football games. It is committed to officially authorizing cooperation with world-famous stars, clubs, etc. to create new digital virtual experiences and services for stars, clubs and fans. Entertainment consumption patterns.
At present, many well-known stars including Del Piero, Michael Owen, Guti, Rivaldo, etc. have joined, and GOAL is the governance token of TOPGOAL, with a market value of only about US$2 million as of the time of publication.
Team/star fan tokens
Secondly, there are fan tokens of each team/club issued based on blockchains such as Chiliz. Holders usually receive exclusive rights and interests, including voting privileges and exclusive rewards from the club.
As of the time of publication, Chiliz has reached cooperation with many top football clubs such as Manchester City, Arsenal, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Roma, AC Milan, Inter Milan, Paris Saint-Germain, etc., and has issued fans corresponding to a total of 63 teams. Tokens, well-known ones include:
- AC Milan Football Club fan token: AC Milan Fan Token (ACM)
- British football club Tottenham Hotspur fan token: Tottenham Hotspur FC Fan Token (SPURS)
- Paris Saint-Germain Football Club fan token: Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG)
- Juventus Football Club fan token: Juventus Fan Token (JUV)
- Barcelona Football Club fan token: FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)
- Portugal National Team Fan Token: Portugal National Team Fan Token (POR)
- Atletico de Madrid Fan Token (ATM)
- Inter Milan Fan Token: Inter Milan Fan Token (INTER)
- Mexican Football Club fan token: Mexican Football club (SAN)
In addition, leading exchanges have also cooperated with the world's top teams to issue fan tokens (most of which are also based on Chiliz), such as LAZIO, SANTOS and PORTO, which are widely regarded as "Binance-based" and are based on BNB Chain. Fan Tokens.
However, judging from the overall statistical caliber, as of the time of publication, Binance has launched a total of 10 fan tokens, including (team category, the same below):
- Brazilian Serie A football club Santos fan token: Santos FC Fan Token (SANTOS)
- Serie A Football Club Lazio: SS Lazio (LAZIO)
- Porto Football Club fan token: FC Porto Fan Token (PORTO)
- Barcelona Football Club fan token: FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)
- Manchester Football Club fan token: Manchester City Fan Token (CITY)
- Paris Saint-Germain Football Club fan token: Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG)
- Juventus Football Club fan token: Juventus Fan Token (JUV)
- AC Milan Football Club fan token: AC Milan Fan Token (ACM)
- Atletico de Madrid Fan Token (ATM)
- AS Roma Fan Token (ASR)
There are a total of 6 fan tokens listed on OKX, including:
- Argentine Football Association Fan Token: Argentine Football Association Fan Token (ARG)
- Portugal National Team Fan Token: Portugal National Team Fan Token (POR)
- Rio de Janeiro Flamengo Sports Club fan token: Flamengo Fan Token (MENGO)
- Turkish Trabzonspor Football Club fan token: Trabzonspor Fan Token (TRA)
- Manchester Football Club fan token: Manchester City Fan Token (CITY)
- Istanbul Professional Football Club fan token: Galatasaray Fan Token (GALFT)
Forecasting & Betting
In addition, forecasting and betting demand often experience a surge in demand during major sports and political events, especially global events such as the World Cup, European Cup, and the U.S. presidential election.
Take Polymarket, the leader in prediction markets, as an example. In the past January, its trading volume exceeded US$50 million, setting a monthly record high.
Among them, the most eye-catching boosting factors include the prediction of the El Salvador presidential election that has ended, whether the spot Bitcoin ETF will pass, as well as the ongoing prediction of the winning team of the 2024 European Cup, the prediction of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and the 2024 U.S. Different betting markets such as Democratic candidates for the presidential election.
However, Polymarket currently does not issue tokens, and other prediction markets such as Aver and BetDEX have extremely shallow betting pools and have not issued tokens.
However, with the European Cup, Olympic Games and US election approaching in the second half of the year, participating in the corresponding betting pools on various events may not be a bad opportunity to enrich investment options.
The historical law of "first rises sharply, then plummets"?
If you look back at the historical market, you will find that when major sports events such as the European Cup are approaching, the related tokens of the pan-sports sector will generally follow the historical law of "first skyrocketing, then plummeting." As for how far in advance there will be market changes, there is a general rule What kind of trajectory trend will be depends on the specific situation.
Since most of these sports events are held every four years, and the development span of the crypto market is relatively large, in this article we only take the 2021 European Cup and the 2022 Qatar World Cup, which are the most recent time nodes, as examples. Let’s conduct a simple review using the currency CHZ and the fan tokens SANTOS and PSG on Binance as examples.
Euro 2021
From June 12 to July 12, 2021, the 2020 European Cup kicked off (Foresight News note, originally scheduled for 2020, postponed by one year due to the impact of the epidemic).
Taking CHZ, the leading token in the sports sector, as an example, if we review the secondary market price performance four months before the start of this European Cup and throughout the event cycle, we will find that it can be roughly divided into three stages:
- Four months before the event, it rose in advance : around February 12, CHZ began to gradually strengthen. In just one month, it rose from 0.3 USDT on February 12 to a maximum of 0.9449 USDT on March 12, 30 days An increase of over 214%;
- Two months before the event, it broke out of the Double Top : but within a month or so from March 12 to April 16, CHZ first fell to a minimum of 0.36 USDT, a drop of more than 60% from the highest point, and then fell to a low of 0.36 USDT on April 16. The daily high rose back to 0.84, breaking out of the Double Top, and then continued to fall from the high;
- During the entire event, there was volatility and decline : in the week before the opening day on June 12, CHZ was relatively strong, but it closed sharply down more than 7% on the opening day, and then fluctuated all the way down, falling as low as $0.178. Compared with 4 months ago, CHZ It fell more than 80% from its high point;
In addition, Paris Saint-Germain Football Club fan token PSG follows a general trend trajectory - it began to fluctuate 3 months before the event, and quickly completed a rising cycle in more than a month, and then began to continue to decline. After the opening, it continued to decline :
- Three months before the event, it rose in advance : around March 10, PSG surged by 52% on that day. Within the next month and a half, it rose from the lowest of 10.862 USDT to the highest of 59 USDT on April 27, an increase of more than 443% in 47 days. ;
- Two months before the event, it peaked and fell : Then in the nearly two months from April 27 to the opening of the event, PSG fell all the way to 10.78 USDT, almost back to the original point, a drop of more than 80% from the highest point. On the opening day on June 12, PSG plummeted again, with an amplitude of more than 10%;
- One month after the end, it reached a new high : Paradoxically, after the European Cup ended, PSG began to rise rapidly, and quickly rose from 15 USDT to 61.5 USDT within 1 month, an increase of more than 310%;
qatar world cup 2022
From November 20 to December 18, 2022, the 2022 Qatar World Cup kicks off.
Among them, we still take CHZ, the leading token in the sports sector, as an example to review the secondary market price performance 5 months before the start of this World Cup and throughout the event cycle. We will find that it can be roughly divided into three stages:
- Five months before the event, the short-term bottom was reached: On June 18, about five months before the start of the event, CHZ hit a short-term low of 0.0811 USDT, and then began a two-month slow rising cycle - from June 18 The daily price of 0.0811 USDT rose all the way, reaching a maximum of 0.265 USDT on August 24, with an increase of over 226% in 66 days;
- Three months before the event, it reached three tops: After hitting the top of the first stage on August 25, in the next three months before the event, CHZ successively hit the second and second peaks on September 23 and November 7. The third stage high point emerges from the triple top pattern;
- During the entire event, there was a sharp fall: In the week before the opening day on November 20, CHZ rose by more than 50% in just 5 days - from the lowest of 0.178 USDT on November 14 to 0.275 USDT on November 19. However, it immediately plummeted at the opening. It closed sharply down by nearly 20% that day, and then fell throughout the entire event, falling as low as $0.1123 on December 17, which was nearly 60% lower than the stage high one month ago;
In addition, the "Binance Series" fan token SANTOS also started to change about 4 months in advance, and formed a Double Top trend 3 months before the event, and then continued to decline. After the event started, it continued to decline. It can be roughly divided into Similar "syllogism":
- Four months before the event, the price started to fluctuate: On July 15th, about four months before the event, SANTOS began to fluctuate, with an amplitude of 15% on that day, and then began a one-month rapid rise cycle - from July 15th The price rose all the way to 3.82 USDT, reaching a maximum of 21.49 USDT on August 19, with a 34-day increase of over 462%;
- Three months before the event, it became a Double Top: after hitting the top of the first stage on August 19, SANTOS first fell to a minimum of 9.8 USDT, a drop of more than 50% from the highest point, and then rebounded again, and on September 25 It once again hit a new high of 22.67 USDT, emerging from a Double Top pattern;
- During the entire event, SANTOS fell sharply: After hitting a new high on September 25th, SANTOS continued to fall until the opening of the event. In the first half month of the event, it fell by more than 50% in a few days, and closed sharply down by nearly 20% on the opening day. It has continued to trend lower since then;
summary
In general, whether it is the 2021 European Cup competition cycle or the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the sports public chain tokens represented by CHZ are launched 4-5 months in advance, and in just 1- It will quickly rise within 2 months, with an increase of more than 200%, and at least a Double Top trend may be formed during this period .
The trends of fan tokens such as SANTOS are generally similar, but the details are slightly different:
- In terms of time, compared with CHZ, it will start one month later (start 3-4 months earlier), and the overall cycle rhythm will also be shortened by about one month;
- In terms of increase, it tends to be "self-leveraged", with the increase often reaching over 300%-400%, which is higher than CHZ's increase of about 200%;
However, as the European Cup & World Cup are about to start, funds involved in early speculation tend to sell off at high points. The prices of these tokens often peak and fall 2-3 months before the opening of the event. There are even short-term plummets after the opening of the event. risks of.
From this perspective, the new round of global competition cycle in 2024, which is about to open in June, is just the starting point for the sports sector to "carve out the boat and seek the sword", which has a strong reference significance.
Therefore, "buy expectations, sell facts", this irrefutable truth in the investment field, is also almost the same for the sports sector (major event nodes), which has a strong cycle and can be planned forward and related currencies. The Iron Law of Crypto Trading.
