Author: cryptoHowe.eth Source: X, @weihaoming
This is the first large-scale event I attended in China this year, and also the first time I write this short essay from the perspective of a VC. Now let me explain why I summarized my thoughts on this conference into three Ponzi haha. At the same time, I also want to state that this article only represents my personal opinion, NFA.
1. Industry
1.VC is one of the indicators for everyone to judge the track
Whenever I talk to people and mention that I’m a researcher at a VC, everyone will ask the same question: Which tracks are you optimistic about recently?
This actually indirectly shows that everyone attaches great importance to the views of VCs, and they will use the views of major VCs as one of the criteria to judge whether their own views are correct. After all, this is a relatively simple truth: where the hot money is, there is the mainstream market, even if there is sector rotation, it is just the inflow and outflow of different funds.
2. The Bitcoin ecosystem is still in chaos
There is no denying that the Bitcoin ecosystem is one of the hottest tracks at present, but personally, I would rather compare the current development of the Bitcoin ecosystem to the chaotic state at the beginning of Pangu's creation of the world.
One reason is that the entire Bitcoin ecosystem is currently dominated by various asset protocols, and there are still few projects with real practical applications. Most of what people talk about now is still narrative, narrative, and narrative.
The second is the competition of BTC L2, another mainstream narrative, which is in the stage of fighting among major projects. We can see an interesting phenomenon. The development of BTC L2 projects is divided into two camps. One camp is to increase traffic first and then build infrastructure, and the other camp is to build infrastructure first and then increase traffic. This is like the relationship between tourism and urban infrastructure. So who will win in the end is worth observing.
Third, I personally think that Merlin Chain has a great voice in the current BTC L2 track. After attracting huge traffic and users through waves of growth in the early stage, what measures will be taken in the future to lock liquidity and retain users, or some meaningful ecological projects will appear. What will be the choice of Merlin Chain and what will be the final outcome, and whether there is really a demand for BTC L2, these are all worth learning and reflecting on.
3. Depin and AI are the two most mentioned tracks
Unlike the current Bitcoin ecosystem, which is almost exclusively played by the Chinese-speaking world, Depin and AI are two tracks that are being paid attention to by both the Chinese-speaking world and overseas. They are also two tracks that are truly meaningful and easier to implement. Depin solves the problem of waste of idle resources and useless small and micro resources, and AI helps solve repetitive and meaningless work, improving efficiency, etc.
Depin has made the invisible and intangible Web3 more concrete by combining it with real devices. As a hot industry in the past two years, AI is naturally combined with blockchain. Depin + AI is more compatible. Depin helps solve AI's computing power, data, storage and other problems, while AI uses Depin devices to conduct various attempts, such as model training, data labeling, AI Agent, etc.
4. KOL > VC or VC > KOL
During this period, we often hear a voice: there are more and more KOL rounds of project financing, and even the advantages of KOL rounds are greater than those of VC rounds, with lower valuations, shorter unlocking cycles, etc.
In this regard, we need to realize that VC is essentially a service industry. They consider how to maximize the returns for the LPs behind them. Therefore, the relationship between KOLs and VCs is like the relationship between a flexible and free guerrilla force and a well-trained army. A good VC will form its own investment logic internally and adjust its investment strategy and corresponding post-investment work according to this logic.
At the same time, a good investment actually focuses more on the effectiveness of post-investment work, how to help the project party avoid detours, step on the right trend, and how to release related benefits, etc. It is definitely not what everyone imagines, that is, just give some money and shill. These tasks require quite high capabilities from investors.
Therefore, I believe everyone has already made a judgment on whether KOL > VC or VC > KOL.
5. The current market is in a meme stage
As mentioned earlier, I summarized my thoughts on this conference as “Ponzi, Ponzi, Ponzi.” This is more out of my personal understanding of the current market situation, which is currently in a meme stage, that is, hyping narratives and expectations.
The hottest tracks recently include Bitcoin ecology, Depin, and AI. However, if we look beyond the surface and see the essence, we will find that most current projects are still speculating on narratives and speculating on everyone's expectations for the future of the track, but few of them are actually implemented. Of course, the same is true for other tracks, and this is not a phenomenon that only exists in mainstream tracks.
Let me give you some simple examples. Why is Merlin Chain so popular now? Is it because of the wealth effect, or because of the good ecosystem on Merlin Chain, or because the narrative of BTC L2 is so popular? How many real devices are connected to the decentralized computing power project in Depin, and how much computing power of each device is used? Is it really helpful to the real world? Will anyone really use this computing power, or is it just talk? How much AI model training has been put into use, and how much help has it brought to everyone? Is it indispensable or dispensable...
Of course, these are all normal phenomena. The ecological development of a track is destined to be a long-term thing and it is impossible to achieve it in one step. What I want to say here is that we should realize what stage we are in and what we should do at what time. This is what we should think about.
2. Life
1. Indispensable banknotes
While WeChat and Alipay are widely used in the mainland, paper money is still a must-have item for traveling in Hong Kong. Although Octopus can basically solve most of the problems, there are still some buses or restaurants that only accept cash, and Octopus can only be recharged with paper money.
2. Senior Lego Builder
Although I am from Guangdong, this is my first time in Hong Kong. The architectural structure of Hong Kong is to maximize the use of idle resources in a small space. The distance between buildings is very short, so short that two households on opposite floors can pass things by opening the windows; except for some large intersections, there are more small intersections and the distance between them is also very short; many designs of overpasses are directly connected between buildings. Such things made me realize what everyone often said before, that life in Hong Kong is really too depressing, and I always feel like my heart is being pressed down when walking on the road.
3. Others
Here are some small details I observed while traveling:
Unlike in mainland China, Hong Kong's intersections have large letters on the ground indicating the direction of traffic flow (look left/look right), and pedestrian traffic lights also have signs for the blind.
There are some convenient elevators at the upper and lower entrances of the subway stairs (not the kind of separate elevators, but hanging on the handrails of the stairs) for people with walking difficulties. This has never been seen in China. Of course, I feel that the utilization rate of this should be very low.
On weekends, you can see many Filipino maids sitting on the ground, chatting and resting on overpasses and open spaces.
The urban environment is still good. I rarely see garbage on the ground, but at the same time, I rarely see trash cans on the road.
3. Personal insights
It was obvious that there were fewer people attending this conference than last year's Singapore 2049, and the project parties at the venue were basically Chinese projects, with few overseas projects. At the same time, there were fewer people going to the various venues to listen to the lectures. Everyone also began to realize that the high-quality information that can be obtained at the conference is always the least, and only the small bureau is the place to discuss big things.
This year, I can feel that I am a little different from last year. From being a nobody last year to being knowledgeable now, it shows that my efforts have not been in vain. I personally feel that I am quite lucky. Along the way, I have received guidance and teachings from many seniors.
But there is still a long way to go, haha. After coming to VC, I deeply realized that investment is an industry that requires a lot of knowledge and flexibility. It requires a full understanding of the history and current status of the industry, and a layout for future trends and developments in advance. It is easy to say that you should do what you want at the right time, but it is not easy to do it. It can be said that success or failure depends on this. What I lack most at present is the unity of knowledge and action. I am not sensitive enough to market changes, and my actions have not been carried out to the end, as well as the control of the secondary market. In these aspects, I still need to practice more and reflect, and find my own strategy as soon as possible. At least now I can clearly know that I am definitely not a short-term material, haha.
As we have just started this year, there is still a lot to do. As graduation is approaching, we must continue to speed up our pace and strive to be pulled into more small games next year. But more importantly, I hope that I can go further and further on the road of Web3.
