Different people have different focuses when looking at problems, and therefore have different opinions. For example:
If you are an empiricist, then according to historical data trends, BTC will generally rebound after it first hits the historical ATH, and will also rebound after halving. From this perspective, it may be: short-term bullish.
If you pay attention to the macro economy, the core retail sales data released by the United States a few days ago (April 15) increased by 1.1%. This data shows that inflation may rise again, which means that the Federal Reserve may not consider lowering interest rates in the short term. From this perspective, it may be bearish in the short term.
If you like to study the development of geopolitical situations (such as what is happening in Iran and Israel), then you may come to another conclusion: bearish in the medium term.
If you continue to analyze the current K-line technical aspects, you will find more, such as the emergence of a triple top pattern, a decline in momentum (based on RSI), and the new test position has been broken. Then the conclusion may be: medium-term bearish. In extreme cases, it may go to around 52,000 in May-June. As shown in the figure below.
If you pay more attention to the inflow/outflow of ETFs, you will find that large institutions have currently suspended their purchases, and the inflow of ETFs has reached a relatively low level. Although the news of the HK ETF passing (April 15) is a positive factor, it will not play a big role in the short term. Therefore, you may also come to a conclusion: if institutions stop buying, it means that the market may face a difficult period.
If you like to look at the crypto market in conjunction with the stock market, the S&P 500 index also seems to be showing a top signal. As shown in the figure below.
In short, if you look at the problem from different angles, there may be different ifs. If we combine all the ifs above, although some will be bullish in the short term, it seems that there are more bearish conclusions in the medium term. Moreover, the current guidance of various news and public opinions seems to tell you that you should be bearish.
But I still say that the short-term market ups and downs cannot be accurately predicted, and are mostly just personal guesses based on some or some angles. Moreover, how should I put it? The BTC has been rising for more than half a year. Maybe this bull is really a little tired and needs a temporary rest and adjustment, and kicking some people off the bull's back.
As a BTC and long-term investor, I will still choose to ignore all the short-term fluctuations, so I will definitely not move at the moment. As for you, if you really can't stand the current short-term fluctuations and you are in urgent need of liquidity, then you can consider selling some of BTC, but if you can't get it back later, you have to accept it. Otherwise, just fasten your seat belt and be ready to enjoy the thrill of the roller coaster in the next few months.
Next, I will continue to share some opinions with you, hoping to be of some help to your psychological construction:
1. Bull market hype
In fact, this point of view has been mentioned several times in Huali Huawai's articles before. For example, when doing research during a bear market, the main analysis is on the fundamentals of the project, such as whether it can persist in innovation, market share, development prospects, etc. Then just keep an eye on the projects you are most optimistic about and invest in them. In this way, when the bull market comes, you will most likely have good gains.
But it is different during a bull market. Fundamental-based analysis may sometimes not be applicable. Instead, projects that rely on good marketing hype can easily achieve 10x or even higher growth, even if these projects have poor technology and token economics design.
Therefore, if you are a long-term holder, you only need to focus on the fundamentals. For example, I have always believed that UNI is a project with good fundamentals, but its current price performance does not seem to be very good. However, in the long run, UNI is still a project worth investing in. But if you hope to gain short-term gains during the bull market, you can give priority to project opportunities that are good at hype or have hype potential.
2. Hold your chips
With the recent market correction, I have seen some friends surrender their chips, and some even choose to clear out their BTC, thinking that the BTC will go back to the position starting with 4, and they are ready to take it back from there.
I even saw some bloggers posting articles these days saying that this round of bull market has ended. I think this view is a bit funny (of course, the other bloggers may also think I am funny when I say this). Anyway, from my personal point of view, first of all, I don’t think that BTC will fall to the position starting with 4 in the next few months, unless there is an extreme low-probability black swan event. To put it another way, even if such a low-probability event really happens, then not only will I not sell the BTC in my hands, I will even put my last 10% position into it without hesitation.
Although BTC has risen from around 15,000, according to our expectations, the bull market has only just entered the mid-term stage, and the big bull market is far from here. Since 2022, some partners have followed us to hoard BTC, and have persisted for more than 2 years. What you need to do now is to try to hold on for another year.
Of course, if you are not hoarding BTC, but those copycats or on-chain meme based on short-term speculation, then it is necessary to stop loss in time (backtest until you can bear it psychologically) or take profits (such as doubling the principal), otherwise you will face relatively large psychological fluctuations, especially those friends who like to hold a large position in copycats or on-chain meme at any time. As for the specific reasons, we have already described in our previous article that the overall liquidity of this bull market is actually quite lacking so far.
3. Stay focused
There is never a shortage of opportunities during a bull market, but it seems that all opportunities pass by you perfectly. Why is this?
The core reason is that I am not focused enough. For example, some people see that BRC20 is hot and rush in to buy it. When they see that the AI sector is hot, they sell BRC20 and then rush in to buy it again. They chase hot spots repeatedly. As a result, they follow the hot spots and not only do they not make money, but also lose a lot of their own capital.
In many of Hualihuawai’s previous articles, we have been emphasizing one point, which is: you should conduct in-depth research in 1-3 fields based on your personal time and energy.
Because there are actually a lot of things to focus on in this market. If divided by so-called tracks, there are at least 200 tracks, and each track contains a large number of projects and knowledge systems. No one can cover all areas. If you hope to seize all opportunities, the final result is often that you will not seize any opportunity.
For example, if you have been paying attention to the ARB ecosystem or the SOL ecosystem for the past two years, or if you only focus on looking for opportunities in the BTC ecosystem, then you should have made good gains so far, at least you are much better than those who just go wherever the trend is. And to be honest, if you can deeply study the BTC ecosystem (which includes many branches, such as the lightning network, inscriptions and runes, etc.), you are actually very, very good.
I remember someone left me a message saying: I envy people like you (Hua Li Hua Wai), I have been following you for a long time, and I feel that you know a lot and understand everything.
In fact, I don’t know everything. As mentioned above, there is too much knowledge in this field, and countless new projects are born every day. It is impossible to learn and read all. There are two core things I am doing now. In addition to hoarding coins, I am mainly organizing and sharing some encryption knowledge systems in a framework. Take the article we published last week on the Bitcoin ecosystem. Even though it is nearly 10,000 words, it is only a framework. If you randomly send me a specific project on the Bitcoin ecosystem, there is a high possibility that my reply to you is: I don’t know this project.
In short, everyone has different goals and purposes, so what they choose to do or can do is naturally different, but one thing is consistent: if you want to do well, you must stay focused. For example, if I regard myself as a self-media blogger who popularizes knowledge, then I will choose to output more methodological or knowledge framework-based content, because I think this kind of content will have more long-term significance, and I will not go into depth to study all specific projects, and I can't study tens of thousands of projects, because I don't have that much time and energy. But if I regard myself as an investor in the crypto field, then I will definitely choose the 1-3 fields that I am most optimistic about, and then go into depth to study the potential projects in them, and do my investment planning and position management.
If you think you understand the truth now, but feel that you have no chance, because you have almost lost all your capital. If you have this idea, it means that you don’t really understand. Whether you are a person or a worker, you are not afraid of making mistakes or missing out. What is terrible is that you cannot accept (or reflect on) such mistakes or miss out. For example, if you only have $200 left, as long as you can continue to do research in a certain field, you will definitely find some new opportunities, because in addition to buying and selling coins, you have other options, such as studying the zero-cost airdrops on the ecosystem.
4. Reduce the time you spend watching the market
There is an interesting phenomenon at present: although many experienced traders are very proficient in K-line technology, they rarely pay attention to the K-line chart. On the contrary, those who don’t even know EMA, BOLL and other indicators stare at the K-line every day.
Once some people buy one or several currencies, they can't wait to open the trading software or data software to check their account balance and K-line chart dozens of times a day. Some people even stare at the screen for a whole day, as if their balance will increase if they stare at the screen without blinking.
Such results will often make you exhausted, and you will also have to bear the various psychological pressures brought about by market fluctuations. In such a state, it is very difficult for you to hold on to your coins.
It is better to give yourself more choices, such as using some of the time you spend watching the market to read articles, take notes, or go out for a walk, get some sun, or spend time with your family. In short, when you leave the screen for a while, you will find that not only will your balance not decrease, but you will also become more energetic.
5. Stay away from contracts
For ordinary investors, many people hope to get rich quickly with the help of contract leverage, but in fact, most (99%) people who play contracts will lose money in the end. Playing this is no different from gambling.
There are many people who show off their contract earnings now. There is too much to say, so I won’t say much. I will just remind you: for anyone who shows you their contract earnings and says they can make you money, don’t say anything and just block them.
In a sense, contracts are not used by "you" to make money, but by "exchanges". But if you think you are the chosen one who can set foot on the exchange, then you don't have to listen to what I just said, because my experience and cognition may not be suitable for such great people.
6. Self-risk management
I remember that in my previous articles on Hualihuawai, I often mentioned the aspect of risk management, and I often said that risk management must be put first.
But last time a friend left a message to refute me. He said: I came into the crypto market to pursue high risks. If I put risk first as you said, then I will play a bullshit game.
This guy's point of view is actually quite interesting, and his words are quite humorous! Of course, I didn't refute him because of this. Where there are many people, there will definitely be different opinions, and everyone has the freedom to express their own opinions.
In fact, the issue of risk management needs to be understood in its essence, that is, anyone who enters the crypto field is not actually for risk reduction. If it is just for risk reduction, then you can just deposit your money directly into a bank fixed deposit. But you can't fall into the other extreme, that is, entering the crypto market is just for the pursuit of higher risks. What I mean by putting risk management first is more from your personal perspective, that is, self-risk management.
You can buy BTC, you can also buy low-market-cap altcoins, or even buy On-Chain meme. These are your own choices, and these investments are risky. And the risk is relative. If you compare BTC and On-Chain meme, On-Chain meme is definitely high-risk. If you compare BTC and time deposits, BTC is definitely high-risk. The important thing here is not to reduce your risk investment in the crypto field, but to try to make these risk investments "balanced", which is the essence of risk management.
In my previous articles, I have always suggested that you keep at least 50% of your positions in BTC/Ethereum, and then you can plan the remaining positions and invest in any copycat/ on-chain meme you like, because this can balance your risks. Even if all your copycat/local on-chain meme are reduced to zero, your 50% position in BTC will not make you lose money, and you can even make money. This is a kind of self-risk management, which is completely different from your risk awareness of a specific project.
7. Pay attention to the security of your account
The risk management mentioned above is more about investment, specifically the balance management of positions. In fact, there is another risk that comes from some security awareness, phishing or scams.
Next, I will continue to summarize this aspect of security:
First, do not share your seed phrase or save seed phrase to your computer or cloud storage. If you just want to save your seed phrase to your computer, it is recommended that you make some simple changes, such as shuffling the order according to a pattern that only you know, or saving them separately.
Second, before connecting to a website to authorize your wallet, you must first verify whether it is a genuine official website address or the legitimacy of the website to avoid being phished. Because once you authorize a problematic website, your wallet may be emptied of all assets in an instant. At the same time, you can also consider installing some browser security plug-ins to ensure the security of each interactive authorization, such as scamsniffer, walletguard and other tools. As shown in the figure below.
Third, if your assets are mainly in large exchanges such as Binance and OKX (other small exchanges are not recommended for storing large amounts of assets), then you must enable 2FA (two-factor authentication) and use it in conjunction with the Google Authenticator app to ensure the security of your account.
Fourth, when transferring a relatively large amount, it is best to test it with a small transfer transaction first, and carefully check your corresponding chain and wallet address to avoid loss of funds due to wrong transfer. For large amounts, you don’t have to worry too much about the transfer fee generated by the small test.
Fifth, don’t put all your eggs in one basket. For example, the assets I deposit in Binance generally do not exceed 100,000 US dollars, because if an extreme situation like the previous FTX occurs, this part of the money is also a loss that I can bear personally. I will allocate and store the remaining assets in different cold wallets and hot wallets. As for hardware wallets, you can choose to use those relatively well-known products, such as Ledger, Trezor, Safepal, etc., but I personally do not use such hardware wallets at present. I only use 2 old iPhones as hardware wallets (not connected to the Internet).
Sixth, don’t trust anyone casually, especially those who claim to provide you with opportunities to make money. These people will not only package themselves, such as packaging themselves as contract experts, XX analysts, etc., but also use professional tools (such as pheasant exchanges, fake wallets, etc.) and even rhetoric to lure you into being deceived step by step. Even you should not trust people you think you can trust. For example, if someone uses an account with the same avatar and name as Huali Huawai to contact you, then you also need to carefully verify the authenticity of the account, because the Huali Huawai who contacts you may not be the real me.
Finally, everyone should go to bed early. The price of the BTC will be halved at 6 o'clock tomorrow. Let's see what happens.
Okay, we will share the content of this issue here for now. This is the 443rd article updated by Huali Huawai. We will continue to bring you more related sharing in the future. Those who are interested can check and learn more content through Huali Huawai.
Note: The above content is only a personal point of view and analysis, and is only for popular science learning and communication purposes. All projects mentioned in the title or text have no interest relationship with Hualihuawai, and do not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is an extremely high-risk area, please treat it rationally, improve risk prevention awareness, and abide by the relevant laws and regulations of the country and region where you are located!
