Hello everyone, the May outlook is here, thank you for your long wait.
Taking into account the unclear market conditions before (although I think it has bottomed out, I still want to observe for a few days), I did not publish any content on May 1st.
Now the content is here, Enjoy~
This article is my personal summary of the tokens I am planning to invest in based on Narrative & Catalyst. I also mentioned that hype is hype, but don’t fall in love with the project.
Looking at the overall market situation, I don’t think there is a rush to Fomo and rush in. You can wait for a pullback, or make a base position now and slowly increase your position.
1/ AI
AI narrative is also the narrative that everyone has talked about the most these days. The main reason is that AI narrative has several clear catalysts:
- May 22 NVIDIA Earnings;
- On June 10, Apple WWDC 2024 also released some additional AI-related content;
- ChatGPT 5 will likely be released this summer, and a GPT version of the search engine is also coming;
- May 14th Google I/O Conference
In essence, this is a science of attention. That is, events generate expectations, expectations generate market attention, and market attention drives prices up.
There are many AI projects in the crypto, and choosing a coin is a science. Generally, I prefer coins that have been recognized by the market and listed on CEXs. For example, $FET and $TAO.
Although $TAO has a large market capitalization and a high pledge rate, its circulation volume is small.
$FET is preparing for a merger with $OCEAN & $AGIX. On May 3, Fetch.ai had minted 1,477,549,566 additional tokens in preparation for the next conversion.
Between $TAO and $FET, I chose $FET. Actually, $TAO is also pretty good, but my personal funds are limited, so I'll do subtraction first.
If you like computing power projects, you can take a look at $RNDR and $AKT
Another track I am optimistic about is AI agent, which is $OLAS. However, $OLAS is my long-term position, so I will hold it for now. I will also increase my position if I make money on other coins. Another AI agent is $PRIME, which I cleared at $24-26. The expectation for $PRIME should be in the second half of the year or 25 years, so there is no rush to layout.
In addition, you can also pay attention to some small opportunities, such as UpRock of Jupiter's second Launchpad.
In addition, there are some interactive scoring projects. I personally feel that the profit margin is not high, because places with a lot of people are competitive.
Of course, there are many AI projects, and I have not paid attention to many projects. A simple logic is: whether the market is willing to pay for the corresponding AI project (market attention) .
2/ MEME
As for MEME, I won’t say much about the on-chain, looking for gold in the shit. I will probably only do $WIF and $PEPE (I don’t deny that $BOME $BONK $FLOKI and other memecoins are also good targets for speculation). $PEPE is my long-term position, $WIF I like to do swing trading. Every time BTC pulls back, I buy/add positions when market sentiment is low, and sell when sentiment surges back. This type of operation is only applicable to bull markets. I think $WIF and $PEPE both have the potential to become $SHIB-level memes in this cycle.
3/ Solana
You can take a look at Pima's views. I would like to add that $JUP is not just doing DEX, it is working hard to become the front end of the entire Solana ecosystem . Let's take a look at what Jupiter is doing now:
- DEX aggregation: Metropolis Part 1 was launched, and a new T0 API was launched, allowing users to query the market with the largest liquidity on the chain for direct exchange.
- Perp DEX;
- Launchpad;
- Acquired Ultimate Wallet and its mobile team to advance the Jupiter Mobile initiative;
- Jito Bundles (tip functionality, protecting users from MEV attacks);
- LST jupSOL;
- Meme: WEN, WEN is doing things related to NFT and SOL staking;
The Jupiter team has a pretty big vision, so I think $JUP is Solana’s biggest Beta. And $WEN will be the Beta of $JUP.
The value of $JTO lies in LSD and MEV. As Professor Pima mentioned, the Solana ecosystem is booming, which is good for Jito.
In addition, Jupiter's second phase project Sanctum is worth paying attention to. If you want to save SOL and brush up your points, you are welcome to use my link: https://sanc.tm/w?ref=8VZMS1 $PYTH will unlock tokens worth 1.19B USD, so I am not very optimistic about it. As for $TSNR and $W, I will not look at them. At present, neither of them has much catalyst, and there are many locked-in orders.
Again, do subtraction.
In addition, there are many things on Solana, including Depin (io.net), the cross-chain bridge with BTC (BRC20, RUNES) ($ZEUS), RWA, etc. These are all interesting concepts, so I will not update them one by one. If there are new positions, I will update them on Twitter.
4/ Basechain
From my logic (market attention), there are two things that can attract market attention. One thing has already happened: Friend Tech issued coins. The other thing is on the way: Coinbase Smart Wallet is officially launched.
There are only a few good targets on Base.
My largest position is $DEGEN. The others are basically memecoin.
I think Basechain will definitely be the birthplace of SocialFi. Including Friend Tech (I didn’t sell any of Friend Tech’s airdrops, and used a small portion as an LP. There have been many discussions on Friend Tech on Twitter, so I won’t go into details) and Farcaster, these SocialFi will definitely have a very good development on Coinbase and Basechain. I see in the community that everyone’s view on Degen is: no longer regard Degen as a meme, but as a Layer3.
My point of view is: I think the biggest attribute of $DEGEN is still MEME. My judgment of it is mainly based on its name and birthplace.
5/ ETH
ETH is still optimistic. I think the ETF will not be available in May, but there is a chance in August. According to GCR, he thinks the ETH ETF may be available at the end of 24 or 25.
I still hold $PENDLE and did not sell any of it during the last FUD. From a more macro perspective, after Eigenlayer ends, airdrops/points will still be a means for projects to acquire users/TVL or cold start. Therefore, the underlying core value of Pendle still exists. And Pendle v3 is also on the way, and the core word of v3 is "Intent".
Buying into the FUD might be a better option.
$LDO has good fundamentals, but unfortunately it is not the spring of value coins, so its performance is mediocre, or even poor. But I personally think $LDO is actually the Beta of Ethereum, and $PEPE is the Alpha.
$ETC production reduction is imminent, which is also worthy of attention.
Another thing is $MODE, you can pay more attention to it.
6/ BlackRock
BlackRock's layout for Crypto is also something that can easily attract market attention. It is mainly engaged in ETF and RWA (and some infrastructure). BTC ETF has been approved, and the mainstream target of RWA is $ONDO.
I think we can observe BlackRock's layout more closely. Following BlackRock's layout to speculate is not a good choice.
7/ European Cup + Summer Olympics
Similar to the hype surrounding the World Cup, the Summer Olympics and the European Championships have similar hype expectations. Like the AI narrative, this hype is triggered by large-scale external events.
Finally, let me briefly talk about games: I am optimistic about them, but I don’t know when the wind will blow to the game sector. I think we can focus on games with a sufficient number of players.
Overall, "Sell in May and go away" is a very mainstream operation, but I don't think there will be a big drop in May without a major negative event. I prefer the oscillating trend in May (referring to BTC), and there will be some opportunities for some Altcoin in the narrative.
