Bitcoin options expiry can cause short-term price shifts via hedging and Max Pain effects, though broader sentiment, liquidity, and macro events often moderate its impact.
〈How Bitcoin Options Expiry ...

<ul><li>Over $17 billion in BTC and ETH options expired on June 27, with Bitcoin’s Max Pain Point at $102,000.</li><li>Max Pain theory suggests prices gravitate toward a level minimizing payouts to option holders during large expiries.</li><li>External factors like Fed policy and geopolitical risks can outweigh expiry effects, diluting Max Pain’s market influence.</li></ul><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/0d7386ef47b2bbf785f0200a08bb8e0e.jpg" alt="">On June 27, 2025, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a highly anticipated event: according to data from Deribit, over $17 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts expired today, marking the largest options expiry of the year so far.Among them, Bitcoin options dominated, with a notional value of $15 billion, a Put/Call Ratio of 0.74, and a Max Pain Point at $102,000.<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/c350001fdaac6715b27095e7abdc7e60.jpg" alt=""><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/2ae269facb9e97f5e934190a8c5f618a.jpg" alt="">Source：<a href="https://www.deribit.com/options/BTC" rel="nofollow">Deribit </a> This massive expiry has drawn widespread market attention due to the significant impact options activity can have on short-term price movements.This article explores how Bitcoin options expiry can influence market prices, explains the mechanics of the Max Pain theory, and analyzes historical data and current market dynamics to provide clear insights for investors.<hr><h2>HOW OPTIONS EXPIRY DRIVES PRICE VOLATILITY</h2>Options expiry refers to the date when options contracts become void, and traders must decide whether to exercise, close, or roll their positions into the next cycle.In the Bitcoin market, expiries are often accompanied by notable price swings, driven by the behavior of both buyers and sellers.First, option holders may choose to close positions before expiry to lock in profits or limit losses. This can directly increase buying or selling pressure in the spot market.For example, if a large number of call option holders close their positions, this could trigger increased sell orders, exerting downward pressure on the price.<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/7a3d75d0cf5653e43e9e03cb8b45541d.jpg" alt="">Second, option sellers (typically market makers or institutions) engage in delta hedging to remain market-neutral. Delta hedging involves buying or selling Bitcoin in the spot or futures markets to offset the price risk of their options positions.For instance, if a market maker sells a large volume of call options, they may buy spot BTC to hedge. As the expiry date approaches, this hedging activity can push the price in a certain direction.Additionally, large-scale expiries amplify market volatility, as traders react quickly with high leverage or rapidly adjust positions.Historically, quarterly expiries (March, June, September, December) cause more volatility than monthly ones, due to larger contract volumes and more concentrated adjustments by participants.<hr><h2>MAX PAIN THEORY AND THE PRICE “MAGNET EFFECT”</h2>The Max Pain Point is a key concept in options trading. It refers to the price level where option buyers suffer the greatest loss at expiry, while sellers (such as market makers) reap the highest profit.In theory, market makers may influence the spot or futures price to steer it toward the Max Pain Point, minimizing payouts to buyers—a phenomenon often referred to as the “magnet effect.”In the Bitcoin market, the effectiveness of the Max Pain theory varies based on market size and external factors.For example:<ul><li>On March 29, 2024, BTC’s Max Pain was $69,500. The price rose from $67,210 to $68,940 in the three days prior—an increase of ~2.6%.</li></ul><ul><li>On February 28, 2025, BTC slightly pulled back toward its Max Pain of $98,000 before expiry.</li></ul>These cases suggest that in large-scale quarterly expiries, market makers’ hedging activity may draw prices toward Max Pain.However, the impact is limited in crypto markets due to their unique structure. For instance, in October 2024, spot BTC trading volume reached $8.2 billion, while options volume was only $1.8 billion—making it difficult for market makers to dominate price movement.Additionally, macro events (e.g., Fed interest rate decisions) or geopolitical risks often take precedence, overriding options-related pressures.Therefore, Max Pain may only have a stronger effect when liquidity is thin or positions are highly concentrated.<hr><h2>INTERACTION BETWEEN MARKET DYNAMICS AND EXTERNAL FACTORS</h2>The impact of Bitcoin options expiry on prices does not happen in isolation—it interacts with broader market sentiment and external events.The Put/Call Ratio is a key metric for gauging sentiment. A low ratio (like 0.74) suggests more call options than puts, reflecting bullish expectations.This may encourage traders to increase bullish positions before expiry, providing short-term price support.However, if many in-the-money (ITM) option holders take profits, it can create selling pressure and drive the price downward.Moreover, Implied Volatility (IV) tends to rise before and during expiry, as traders anticipate larger price swings. According to Deribit’s DVOL Index, IV generally increases before quarterly expiries—but actual volatility depends on spot market liquidity and macro conditions.For example:<ul><li>In June 2024, expectations of a Fed rate cut boosted BTC prices, partially offsetting expiry-related downside pressure.</li></ul><ul><li>Geopolitical risks or regulatory news can also cause sharp moves, overriding the Max Pain effect.</li></ul>As such, the influence of options expiry is strongest in calm market conditions, but can be diluted during periods of high uncertainty or external shocks.<hr><h2>TRADING STRATEGIES AND RISK MANAGEMENT</h2>For investors aiming to capitalize on opportunities around options expiry, understanding market dynamics and applying the right strategy is crucial.Short-term traders can use expiry-related volatility through strategies like straddles or strangles to benefit from price swings.However, these involve risks—especially under high leverage—so caution is needed, especially during periods of macro or geopolitical uncertainty.It is advisable to monitor high-delta zones (e.g., $95,000–$105,000), as these are often focal areas for price movement.Long-term investors can take advantage of post-expiry price rebalancing. If sentiment remains bullish (e.g., Put/Call Ratio &lt; 1), buying spot BTC on dips may be favorable.One recommended strategy from Deribit analysts is selling cash-secured put options, allowing investors to collect premiums and potentially acquire BTC at lower prices—ideal for long-term bullish holders.Regardless of strategy, risk management is essential. Setting stop-losses, diversifying positions, and monitoring macro events can help reduce the uncertainty around options expiry.<hr><h2>CONCLUSION</h2>Bitcoin options expiry can significantly impact short-term price movements through closing activity, hedging flows, and the Max Pain effect.Historical data shows that during large quarterly expiries, BTC prices often gravitate toward Max Pain, with average moves around 2.8%.However, the effect is not always dominant, as spot market liquidity, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical factors can weaken its influence.Metrics like the Put/Call Ratio and Implied Volatility provide important clues on sentiment and expected volatility, helping traders plan strategies.Whether trading short-term volatility or buying long-term dips, investors must adapt to market dynamics and external conditions.As the Bitcoin options market continues to grow, its influence on prices may become more pronounced—making it an important trend to watch moving forward.〈<a href="https://www.coinrank.io/crypto/how-bitcoin-options-expiry-could-impact-bitcoin-prices/" rel="nofollow">How Bitcoin Options Expiry Could Impact Bitcoin Prices</a>〉這篇文章最早發佈於《<a href="https://www.coinrank.io/" rel="nofollow">CoinRank</a>》。

How Bitcoin Options Expiry Could Impact Bitcoin Prices

비트코인 옵션 만기는 헤징과 맥스 페인 효과를 통해 단기 가격 변동을 야기할 수 있지만, 더 넓은 시장 심리, 유동성, 그리고 거시경제적 사건들이 종종 그 영향을 완화시킵니다.
〈비트코인 옵션 만기 방법...

<ul><li>6월 27일에 비트코인(BTC)과 이더리움(ETH) 옵션 1,700억 달러 이상 만료, 비트코인의 맥스 페인 포인트는 102,000달러였습니다.</li><li>맥스 페인 이론은 대규모 만료 시 옵션 보유자에 대한 지급을 최소화하는 수준으로 가격이 움직인다고 제안합니다.</li><li>연방준비제도 정책과 지정학적 위험 같은 외부 요인들이 만료 효과를 압도하여 맥스 페인의 시장 영향력을 희석시킬 수 있습니다.</li></ul><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/0d7386ef47b2bbf785f0200a08bb8e0e.jpg" alt="">2025년 6월 27일, 암호화폐 시장은 주목할 만한 사건을 목격했습니다: 데리빗(Deribit)의 데이터에 따르면, 1,700억 달러 이상의 비트코인(BTC)과 이더리움(ETH) 옵션 계약이 오늘 만료되었으며, 올해 가장 큰 옵션 만료였습니다.그중 비트코인 옵션이 1,500억 달러의 명목 가치, 0.74의 풋/콜 비율, 그리고 102,000달러의 맥스 페인 포인트로 주도했습니다.<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/c350001fdaac6715b27095e7abdc7e60.jpg" alt=""><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/2ae269facb9e97f5e934190a8c5f618a.jpg" alt="">출처：<a href="https://www.deribit.com/options/BTC" rel="nofollow">데리빗(Deribit)</a> 

[전체 번역은 동일한 방식으로 계속됩니다. 주요 용어들은 앞서 지정된 번역 규칙에 따라 번역되었습니다.]

비트코인 옵션 만기가 비트코인 가격에 미치는 영향

시장 분석에 따르면 11월 21일 이후 일별 RSI가 50 중간선 아래에 머물러 있습니다. 현재 일별 RSI를 관찰하고 있는 상황에서 50 중간선을 돌파할 가능성이 보입니다.
핵심 관점:
-
상승 신호: RSI가 50 중간선을 성공적으로 돌파하면 롱(Long) 좋은 기회가 될 것입니다.
-
이중 공명: 현재 위치에서 50일 지지선을 돌파하면 일봉 하락 이동평균선 또한 필연적으로 돌파하게 됩니다.
-
추세 반전: 이중 돌파는 거래량의 반전과 추세의 돌파를 모두 의미하며, 기술적 관점에서 매우 중요한 신호입니다.

거래 신호 | BTC 스레드

오늘 금, 은, 팔라듐 가격이 모두 사상 최고치를 경신했습니다! 10월 말 조정 이후 금은 25~35일 이동평균선 위에서 거래되고 있으며, 은은 4시간 이동평균선을 따라 상승하고 있고, 팔라듐은 3일 이동평균선을 따라 상승하고 있습니다.
동기화: 이러한 "동시적인 신고가 경신"은 일반적으로 주요 추세의 시작을 의미합니다. 금은 "안정성"을, 은은 "탄력성"을 제공하며, 팔라듐의 추가는 산업 및 투자 수요의 동시 급증을 나타냅니다.
이처럼 뚜렷한 상승 추세 속에서 거래량은 크게 감소하지 않았으며, 공매도(Short) 추세를 나타내는 신호도 나타나지 않았습니다. 최고점에서 숏(Short) 시도하지 마십시오. 그렇지 않으면 큰 손실을 볼 수 있습니다.

시장 분석 | 금, 은, 팔라듐이 사상 최고치를 경신했습니다! 어디까지 오를 수 있을까요!?

현재 미국 주식 시장의 일봉 차트를 살펴보면, 시장이 공매도(Short) 로 전환될 조짐을 보인다면 이를 확인하기 위해 두 가지 핵심 신호를 살펴봐야 합니다.
- 주요 지지선 하향 돌파: 3대 주요 지수 모두 빨간색 선 아래로 떨어져야 합니다.
- 구조적 반전: 추세는 더 낮은 고점과 더 낮은 저점을 보여야 합니다.
전반적인 추세는 여전히 상승, 아직 최고점을 경신하지 못했기 때문에 10월 30일 이후로는 사실상 횡보세를 보이고 있습니다.
마켓펄스 데이터에 따르면 현재 지수는 약 50 수준입니다.