Rui

Rui

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Chief eating officer at HashKey Capital, Travel, Foodie, Crypto #Binance GMGN：https://t.co/yKaFrDMkoi Kaito：https://t.co/0RR42Z1YJD

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The office building has felt like it's been booked out by crypto enthusiasts these past few days... Even during a bear market, these guys are out spending...

The current market consensus is that buy the dips shouldn't be considered until the third quarter... The last time a similar consensus was reached was during another surge in Bitcoin last October...

It was foreseeable that Zama would end up like this, but no one expected it to end so quickly. This should be the last token project in the crypto to raise more than 100 million US dollars... It can also be considered the end of narrative-based Altcoin.

One root cause of the 1011 incident was the downfall of long-term "holders" like Chen Zhi and Qian Zhimin. This disproved the narrative that Bitcoin was a safe-haven asset for a group of people. In the long run, the unique characteristics of Bitcoin/ the crypto have led to a playground for various big players. The SBF incident at the end of 2022 and the Chen and Qian incidents at the end of 2025 both resulted in intense turnover of tokens. After such an event, the typical scenario is that short-term buyers enter the market, wait for the price to rise again, then long-term buyers take over, and if the price fails to rise further, they cut their losses and leave the market. For BTC right now, the price has bottomed out, attracting short-term buyers. However, institutions that were originally intended to be long-term buyers haven't continued to enter the market. One reason is that the October 11th crash was too devastating, and they need to assess its impact and whether similar events will occur in the future. The fact that "Cathie Wood"(a popular investor) spoke out three months later, directly criticizing Binance, suggests they believe Binance played a part in the October 11th crash; they won't dare continue trading without understanding the risks of single-point-of-failure protection. Another reason is that large asset classes like gold have seen significant price increases, have large capacities, and offer high potential for short-term management fees. Asset management institutions will prioritize allocating to and shill these assets. So when short-term buying pushed the price to 97K, no new buying followed, and funds flowed out to more profitable US stocks and gold. Meanwhile, BTC was too busy to pay attention to it, and a slow, gradual decline followed by a sharp drop due to liquidity depletion began. In situations like this, it's usually the crypto native buyers who need to step in and fill the gap. We can see Bfx whale continuously increasing their holdings, and Binance responding to the call by converting its insurance fund into BTC to boost confidence. Is there any risk in building a position now? There is definitely a risk. The key issue is whether there will be any unexpected events like the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. In other words, it depends on whether there will be any bigger unexpected geopolitical events that will impact the crypto.

After two months of pre-market trading, Sent is finally going to be listed. I remember their funding round was in early 2024. Back then, due to the rise of traditional AI and the phenomenal growth of projects like Tao and WLD, Sent easily secured an astonishing 80 million from investors. Funding at that time was genuine, and no one thought Crypto AI was inferior to traditional AI. I remember once talking to the team on the phone, and they said that the interest generated from the funding round alone could cover a large portion of their expenses—it was a time of explosive growth. As we all know, the rest of the story unfolded. With a wave of AI Agent Memes issuing tokens, it became clear that narratives are just narratives and can never translate into actual revenue. Then, a number of older projects that couldn't issue tokens were resurrected with the help of market makers, completing due diligence for listing by incorporating AI narratives, plunging the entire AI sector into a stagnation. Then came October 11th, when the combined impact of liquidity shocks and narrative disillusionment caused the AI crypto market to bottom out. Hitting the bottom doesn't guarantee a rebound, but it does indicate that expectations for Sent are extremely low. Sent's price fell steadily before and after its IPO, then traded sideways until the official launch a few days ago. Within a week, it had dropped 50%, and its FDV is now only $700 million, higher than its first round of funding but lower than its second. The cash raised is close to enough to repurchase the initial circulating shares. The market liquidity shock and the demise of narratives are terrible situations for all project teams, and launching during the most difficult time takes great courage. The return of profitability requires pioneers, and hopefully Sent can perform well.

My experience suggests that even though Twitter has banned platforms like Yaps, it hasn't reduced the number of AI bots in the comments section... It seems like the Pandora's box that Kaito opened can't be closed anymore...

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