The illusion of human hindsight is extremely strong. Without being beaten by the real world for twenty or thirty years, without seriously reviewing and documenting step by step the various mistakes one has made, one would naively and frivolously believe that it would be easy to seize a ten-fold or hundred-fold stock opportunity in the future.
But when the actual opportunity arrives, either it cannot be grasped, or if grasped, one runs away after making a small profit, or is lured by a wrong opportunity, starts making a little money, and then quickly falls into a big pit, losing even more.
This is like some superficial people who, after seeing heavily altered historical books, frivolously believe that ancient people were stupid, and that if they were in power, they would certainly occupy a god's-eye view, persuade others smoothly, respect talents, remain indomitable, and be incredibly heroic. As a result, they fail miserably as soon as they make a move and end up dismembered.
A serious and knowledge-honest review should be conducted like this:
Ask AI:
Why was a certain stock or asset severely undervalued by the masses in a specific year (thus leading to a subsequent dozens-fold increase)?
After AI lists several specific reasons for the undervaluation at that time, continue to ask:
Based on the information I had, could I have seen further than others?
What type of information could I have collected to potentially see further?
In what (previously unrecognized) situations could I efficiently gather such information to reach a high-confidence conclusion?
When did this company's stock price experience a sharp drop, and what were the background and direct reasons?
Would I have panic-sold in such a situation?
How can I adjust my thinking model, focus, and information channels to avoid being swept up in panic?
And so on.
After asking five to ten questions, one will either ultimately admit that the opportunity could not have been seized under those conditions, or obtain clear and effective suggestions about being more sensitive to specific situations and types of information previously overlooked, helping to make higher-confidence predictions more effectively and far ahead of others.
Collecting and analyzing effective information is at least an order of magnitude easier than actually working hard, and some methodologies can be generalized to other industries.
