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陈剑Jason 🐡
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喜欢写点项目和行业的分析，也作为投资者和顾问与部分项目存在利益相关，请注意我的内容无法完全保证客观。 OpenLedger 🐙 超100%POR资金储备，安全首选。交易所&钱包，OKX就够 。🔗 https://t.co/iFUpotWfVJ
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Signal Clone Analysis
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陈剑Jason 🐡
Tether's recent, unprecedented move of having its first audit report issued by one of the Big Four accounting firms is likely due to a failed fundraising attempt and a desperate attempt to bolster investor confidence. Back in September of last year, at the peak of the bull market, Tether ambitiously announced a fundraising target of $500 billion. Now, in a bear market, coupled with strong competition from Circle, this fundraising is proving difficult. There are only 14 days left until the April 17th deadline for investors to subscribe. Currently, USDT's issuance is only 2.5 times that of USDC, yet USDC's trading volume has exceeded USDT's for four consecutive months. However, Tether's valuation is 23 times that of Circle. Leaving aside whether Circle is undervalued, Tether is definitely overvalued... As a crypto user, I have mixed feelings about Tether – love and hate. Many people have even started to dislike Tether. As a "crypto pump," it earns billions of dollars annually, which it then uses to buy sports teams, video streaming services, and smart mattress companies. While these can be understood as the founders indulging in their hobbies, All In physical gold over the past year has definitely hurt the feelings of many digital gold holders. 😂
ETH
0.35%
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陈剑Jason 🐡
I see a lot of people on Twitter are extremely bearish because they think, “A lot of early whales have super low entry prices, and unless they sell, BTC won’t pump.” So here’s another metric to consider: the number of BTC in profit, meaning how many BTC are currently in profit. This can help us judge which stage of the cycle we’re in. Here’s the data from the past 15 years👇 2011 bear market bottom: 3.5M BTC in profit, BTC price $2.5. 2015 bear market bottom: 5M BTC in profit, BTC price $250. 2019 bear market bottom: 7.5M BTC in profit, BTC price $3,500. 2022 bear market bottom: 9M BTC in profit, BTC price $16,000. Now in 2026, 10M BTC in profit, BTC price $66,000. So, do you see it? Even at the absolute bottom of each cycle, the number of profitable BTC keeps increasing. In the 2022 bear market, almost half of all BTC was still in profit! So just because a lot of people are still in profit doesn’t mean we haven’t hit the bottom yet. Right now, with 10M BTC in profit, we’re almost equal to the previous cycle’s 9M. Nobody can predict the exact bottom, but at this level, I’m choosing to DCA $1,000 every day.
BTC
0.72%
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陈剑Jason 🐡
04-01
wBTC has returned to Spark's collateral list. It seems that after two years of security review and assessment, the industry's initial panic regarding Justin Sun's entry into wBTC has subsided, and wBTC is still considered a safe and collateralizable asset. The background to this story is that in 2024, BitGo, the custodian of wBTC, and Hong Kong-based BiT Global established a joint venture, with BiT Global participating in custody. BitGo's announcement at the time directly included Justin Sun's name, stating it was a strategic partnership with Justin Sun and the Tron ecosystem. The market reacted immediately, assuming BiT Global was Justin Sun's company. Coinbase first delisted wBTC due to "Justin Sun posing an unacceptable risk," followed by AAVE strengthening its risk parameters for wBTC, and MakerDAO simultaneously lowering the debt ceiling for wBTC and prohibiting it from being used as collateral in Spark, effectively creating a siege against wBTC. However, after two years under the new custody structure, wBTC has not experienced any operational incidents, its transparency remains unchanged, and the custody keys are more dispersed among multiple entities. On the contrary, wBTC still ranks as the largest package of Bitcoin, exceeding Coinbase's cbBTC by almost double. So Coinbase's strong reaction at the time was to promote its own cbBTC and create a buzz. It seems that there was excessive panic about Justin Sun at the time. In March of this year, Spark released a governance proposal to reactivate wBTC as collateral and passed the vote. As a platform for institutional lending, Spark has very strict risk control and currently only accepts 7 assets, so wBTC has regained industry recognition for its security. twitter.com/jason_chen998/stat...
WBTC
0.67%
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陈剑Jason 🐡
04-01
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The shutdown price indicator is becoming ineffective in this cycle! Just yesterday, another miner completely surrendered. The CEO of Bitfarms, a long-established publicly traded Bitcoin mining company in the US, announced in a conference call that the company would completely abandon its Bitcoin business, shut down all mining farms, sell all its Bitcoin holdings, and transform into an AI computing and data center provider. Previously, during every bear market, everyone paid attention to the shutdown price of miners. As a physical limit, once the price fell below this level, miners were doomed, and the market would reduce selling pressure from the supply side, thus truly reaching the bottom. However, the shutdown price is no longer as meaningful as it once it hits the bottom. Miners don't need to sit and wait for the price to fall; instead, they can withdraw early and transform into AI providers. Therefore, many miners choose to "shut down" early when the price is far above the shutdown price. So the good news is that the actual shutdown price of Bitcoin in this cycle is higher than the true shutdown price!
BTC
0.72%
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