Willy Woo

Willy Woo

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I do numbers, mainly #Bitcoin related but not always. I only post here, all other channels including Telegram are scams. Founder: @bitcoinvector and @crestfund

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Japanese will have more incentive to buy BTC. Classifying as a financial product means the tax rate on BTC gains (or trading) goes to 20% instead of being the marginal income tax rate (43-55% if you earn >57k USD per year. Metaplanet will lose its tax arbitrage advantage over self custody BTC. Around 110 cryptos are also included, staking gains are taxed at the marginal rate. twitter.com/woonomic/status/20...

Until orange climbs higher into 2026 and starts to weird non-cyclical stuff, this narrative on THE END OF 4 YEAR CYCLES is NOT supported by data. Flows into the BTC network declining according to past cycles.

I think we get a short term pump for January (starting to see liquidity putting in a local bottom). But this chart (transactions and fees) looks long term (macro cycle) bearish, it's a ghost town out there.

"Quantum risk is 20 years away..." This misses the point. What matters NOW is whether investors see risk and are selling. PERCEIVED RISK is enough to stop adoption. twitter.com/woonomic/status/20...

Are users concerned over quantum? Since 2024, use of Taproot (the latest format) has declined from 42%→20%. I've NEVER seen the latest format losing adoption before. Taproot is Quantum Vulnerable, while older Segwit and Legacy are not.

So what it means is it becomes a regulatory bar on businesses with minimum value that will get culled. But ultimately they get culled anyway so there’s not point in centralising power in those that set that bar, because that power will be corrupted by the incumbents.

Historically BTC tops have lead pull backs in global M2.

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