PlanC

PlanC

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Creator of the Bitcoin Quantile Model

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Everyone has been modeling Bitcoin's fair value incorrectly. The real statistical fair value for Bitcoin today is $101,000, not $130,000 or $118,000. Linear quantile regression or OLS regression is not the correct way to model Bitcoin's fair value. There is clear decay at the median. At the first quantile, all decay fits and linear fits give the same value. Proof: the 1st quantile has zero decay. All decay fits collapse to linear quantile regression; they don't at the median.

🚨 Important Point: Bitcoin Bitcoin has NEVER had its FULL, complete bull market EVER while the PMI was below 50 the whole time. Which really begs the question: was what happened over the last few years really a true bull market? Sminston coined the term "quasi bull market," and I think that is accurate. We have discussed this on the Bitcoin Uncharted weekly show. We had a bull market from a price standpoint; you could technically call it that, but with bear market backdrop conditions. Hence, we had a quasi bull market, or prelude bull market. The full bull market is still to come.

Checkmate is presenting a false dichotomy here, which is a textbook logical fallacy. Why are the two mutually exclusive? There can be large amounts of long-term holders selling and Jane Street "doing their thing," which at the very least amplified the long-term holder dumping. This is also a self-reinforcing cycle. The more the price drops, the more long-term holders feel compelled to take profits or get shaken out. Nobody is claiming that Jane Street is solely responsible for every red candle in its entirety. But if there is any substance to the accusations regarding their tactics, the very tactics they have reportedly employed before in other countries, then they are clearly a net negative on Bitcoin's price. To what degree is debatable, and no one can say with certainty, but the evidence suggests it's neither negligible nor trivial. There is no either/or here; it's some combination of both. We don't have to think in binaries. twitter.com/TheRealPlanC/statu...

Bitcoin: Signal of the day. Looks like business cycle follow-through incoming! twitter.com/TheRealPlanC/statu...

I am. Been ready. twitter.com/TheRealPlanC/statu...

The correlation started before the second halving, so around early 2016. Anything before that is meaningless to compare, as the market was retail-speculative driven. So his point about 2014 is null and void. We cover that in our article.

@intocryptoverse

This year, there has been a strong pivot to using the ISM to predict where the price of Bitcoin will go, especially after many of the supercycle narratives coming into this year seem to have failed. I want to show a clear example of why the ISM does not *necessarily* have to

ISM Manufacturing PMI: Jan 52.6% — Expansion💥 Dec 47.9% — Contraction Nov 48.2% — Contraction Oct 48.7% — Contraction If you don't upgrade your understanding of the Bitcoin cycle from the 4-year halving mirage mindset to a business cycle / macro mindset fast... You will miss the boat completely on the second massive leg of this Bitcoin bull market!

Bitcoin: Wanted to capitulate at the bottom? Today's your lucky day.

You won't be able to claim we didn't try our hardest to warn everyone. Bitcoin's redemption is coming very soon. twitter.com/TheRealPlanC/statu...

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