Macro Charts

Macro Charts

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30 years in markets. ex-Fund Manager, now independent. Writing about BIG trends & ideas.

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Record Tech Flows From BofA via BBG: - Tech had the biggest weekly inflow in client data history (2008) - Energy, Discretionary, Financials, Staples, Utilities, and Materials all had record or near-record outflows

From GS on Flows (BBG): - Biggest sell imbalance since 2022 (Friday) - Stresses no longer “ignored” - “can start talking at what innings we’re in because the game has finally started” - Hedging is so expensive that to break even, would need indexes in “correction territory”

A pretty good week that reminded me, life goes on:

In times like this diversification is key: whiskey, vodka, tequila, and nonna's homemade grappa.

From GS on Flows: - Long-only investors sold $9.6B across GS’ trading floor on Thursday, the biggest wave of selling in the firm’s data history (2022). - Thursday broke the prior record from July 2025, and marked a rare five-sigma event.

From GS on Flows: - CTAs Sold $80B over the last month - “Length has gone from >8 out of 10 to ~6.5 now, projected to go near 4.5-5 all else equal” - Systematics are estimated to sell $70B in the next *week* and up to $100B in the next *month* *How will this affect stocks?

JPM on Flows: Retail investors showing signs of ‘persistent’ fatigue - Investors have “pressed pause” on buying, with weekly purchases dropping 30%, and ETF inflows dropping 22%. - “For the first time this year, retail investors are showing persistent signs of weakness”

The cost of protection is near the most expensive levels in history. *Is it sustainable? / What happens next?

NEW POST: - Updated Market Conditions: covering OIL, STOCKS, VIX, CREDIT, and more. - Main Signals we’re Watching. - Updated Actional Plan. 🔗Link in profile. Good luck out there, -MC

NEW POST: We raised CASH and added HEDGES on Thursday, with SPY reference price $681. Now, watching CLEAR & URGENT signals closely: - Everything we’re tracking this week. - Our clear and ACTIONABLE plan ahead. Experience and patience can TRULY shine here. Get ready…

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