_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

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Helping navigate #Bitcoin's volatility Newsletter https://t.co/omfQHUqMjb Onchain Analyst @_checkonchain Charting Suite https://t.co/5DH6Z9lWT1

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

We're seeing utter carnage in Bitcoin markets, with prices falling precipitously towards $60k. We've just published a flash market update for our Premium members, where @_Checkmatey_ provides his unfiltered and honest opinions about what the road ahead looks like from his PoV -> newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/...… A couple insights from the piece: - Based on long-term mean reversion models, we’re currently trading at levels only seen in 15% to 20% of trading days, coincident with bear market lows. - Based on faster mean reversion models like the STH cost basis and 200DMA, we’re at levels with fewer than 5% of BEAR MARKET days being lower. Welcome to deep value territory folks, hang in there.

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

Markets, like life, are not fair. I recommend never assuming they ever will be.

This drawdown feels horrible not because of the magnitude, but because it’s unfair. Everything goes up, but we’re sideways. AI bubble fears? We go down. Metals crash? We go down too. However, absolute scarcity is real and it will hit a limit. We can’t be pushed down forever.

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

Remember when everyone became a silverbug for a week? That was fun.

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

Has a quantum computer ever successfully run Shor's algorithm? Is there an example where the specific algorithm that breaks ECDSA, has been successfully run on a lower security obsolete cryptographic scheme?

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

Folks are back to blaming manipulation because a bear flag broke lower.

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

Bitcoin has now back-filled the $70–80k supply air-pocket. That move was fast, but structurally unsurprising - low historical volume zones tend to offer little support on the way down. - Price is now approaching the 2024 chopsolidation range, a region of dense historical demand. - Paper losses are now on par (in USD terms) with prior bear extremes. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ continues his analysis of the prevailing drawdown, and what it means in the short term given we have now largely back-filled the air-pocket --> newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/...…

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

One thing I have not seen enough of in the quantum debate, are reference pieces where Quantum Computers are demonstrably solving more complex problems. I see a lot of 'it's coming and it's dangerous' concern, but not enough evidence to substantiate the claims. I understand the 'this agency, and this smart dude are worried' arguments. I'd love to see more debate around the 'this is the actual measured progress being made' side of the equation. It is surely out there, right? Very interested to see references describing the state of the art, and this is why it is a growing risk.

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

A thought to ponder. 2023-26 shares more in common with 2019-20, than it does with 2021-22. Enjoy.

Some hopium or random thoughts. Still think this was the first bear cycle for crypto. Even though BTC made new highs. That’s why it also is “different” from a topping perspective. We just had a tonne of positive developments and a flood of capital that offset it somewhat.

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

Have you ever tried to sell half a gold coin? No, you need silver coins for smaller payments. Right, so I need to hold an industrial metal, and trade in/out of the silver-gold exchange rate in order to save in smaller amounts? Yes. ...and I have to send it to you by mail, or in person? I can't use the internet to transfer it? It's 2026? ... ...so I ended up cutting my gold coin in half (dealer said they'd pay scrap 15% below spot), but only the outside was gold, and the middle was grey. Why is that? ...aaaaand it's gone.

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