Over the past few months, we’ve seen crypto prices fall, MSTR trade at a discount to NAV, and institutions step in as weaker hands exit. Back in December, I discussed these as plausible outcomes on an @ARKInvest podcast I recorded with @CathieDWood.
The underlying dynamic is that public blockchains, like most financial innovations, move in waves. Trump’s pro-crypto campaign pulled in indiscriminate capital, FOMO, and leverage. That energy expressed itself through inefficient, duplicative DAT structures and new forms of off-chain leverage. At the same time, many large-cap tokens have failed to demonstrate product-market fit or a credible economic model.
I expect the market to become more discriminating. Despite recent underperformance, BTC has established itself as digital gold in the minds of many — mine included — and I expect that view to continue to grow. For everything else, the question is straightforward: what purpose does this token serve? If it’s an L1, what are its characteristics, and how do the economics work? It’s not surprising that two relative outperformers in this period — HYPE (Hyperliquid) and CC (Canton) — are L1s with clear product-market fit and viable economic models.
