In May 2022, Bitcoin retested its 200-week MA cloud.
Bulls said "that's it, we've retested the long-term moving average & can continue higher now".
Price immediately rebounded on that zone, produced a long wick, & closed above the midpoint of the weekly range.
But then that rally faded...
Price came back into the 200W MA cloud a few weeks later, failed to rebound, then sliced through the cloud in June 2022.
What are we seeing right now?
The first retest of the 200W MA cloud with a long wick.
The weekly close is coming up later today and price has been able to move back above the midpoint of the weekly range.
I'm not saying that it's going to repeat perfectly.
I don't even know what's going to happen next.
The reality is that no one knows what happens next.
All I know is that we have been in a downtrend since November 2025, which I was lucky enough to call in real-time.
I also know that downtrends produce lower lows and lower highs.
We've produced lower lows vs. Apr.'25 & Nov.'25.
Now, we have a chance to produce a lower high.
I have a few ideas where that might occur.
Embrace nuance.
