Caleb Franzen

Caleb Franzen

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2025 was not a bear market for Bitcoin. The asset was once up +35% YTD and outperforming equities. It rallied +70% from the April lows to the October highs. However, Bitcoin DID enter a bear market in November. There's a difference.

Remember during the Bitcoin bull market when I said that "bull markets and uptrends don't mean 'up only'"? The opposite is also true... Bear markets don't mean down only. They produce lower lows and lower highs. In order to produce that lower high, bear markets have rallies.

Stablecoin dominance has been in an uptrend for at least one year, and potentially even two years...

If you already own Bitcoin and don't want to sell, I can't stress this enough... Plan for a bear market. Stop inhaling bull copium. If bulls are right, you'll be rewarded. If bears are right, your patience & preparation will allow you stomach the vol & make strategic DCAs.

This is Bitcoin relative to the S&P 500 (BTC/SPY). It's on track for its lowest daily close since November 5, 2024. Is making 12+ month new lows the sign of an uptrend or a downtrend?

S&P 500 futures keep grinding after the breakout. Bull market setups tend to work during bull markets... • "Breakout, retest, rebound" on the blue range. • Bull flag regression channel produced new highs. • New base breakout is sticking the landing. • Price > 200-day MA

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