Block Scholes

Block Scholes

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2/ 🪙 Another headwind on BTC’s current price is a slowdown in Spot ETF inflows. Yesterday, the nine Spot BTC funds sold $142.2M worth of bitcoins, marking the third straight outflow session. Since the October 10 liquidation event, Spot ETFs, which have coincided with most spot

🎄 Santa Rally hasn’t reached extended to crypto 1/ 📉 For now, however, the beginnings of a Santa Rally have not extended to crypto. BTC rose towards $90K during Asian trading hours — however it ultimately failed to hold the $90K level and for most of the US trading session, it slowly fell lower. It now trades at $87K, with the psychological $90K level continuing to act as a strong area of resistance.

📊 BTC & ETH: spot recovery vs derivatives positioning 1/ 📈 Last Friday’s rally pushed BTC up from $84K to $88K, a level it then held the line at over the course of the weekend. In early Asian trading hours today, BTC modestly extended Friday’s moves but is currently capped at the $90K resistance level. ETH’s spot price followed a similar pattern also — with the second largest crypto once again reclaiming $3,000, after trading below $2,800 on Friday.

🇯🇵 Japan 10Y government bond yield hits 2% (highest since 2006) as BoJ raises rates — what does this mean for BTC? 📰 Japan’s inflation release overnight set the tone, and this morning the BoJ lifted rates to a 30-year high (first hike since January 2025) as the Japan 10Y yield

📊 BlockScholes x @Bybit_Learn : No Signs of Impending Santa Rally 1/ 🧮 BTC volatility has normalised from the late-November spike but remains high: 7-day at-the-money implied volatility is well below its recent peak, while realised volatility has also fallen from earlier extremes, and the BTC term structure now slopes upwards rather than inverting around short tenors.

📊 Inflation surprise BoJ hike and crypto rulebook momentum 1/ 🧾 CPI downside surprise but with big caveats: Headline and core US CPI both printed below every Bloomberg forecast at 2.7% and 2.6% y/y, breaking a four-day S&P 500 decline and briefly increasing BTC above $89K before it decreased down to ~$84.5K and then back above $88K.

📊 Inflation surprise: BTC strengthens as the dollar weakens 🧭 At 08:30 ET, US headline inflation (y/y) reportedly fell unexpectedly to 2.7% in November, below economists’ expectations. In the chart, the dotted line marks the release, after which BTC moved higher while DXY declined. 💭 What are your thoughts?

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