Jake Pahor

Jake Pahor

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DeFi creator & analyst | Documenting my quest for financial freedom | 🇦🇺 Account Executive @Coinstash_AU DM for Private Deals.

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Jack Dorsey just cut 4,000 people from Block. Nearly half the workforce. Gone. His reasoning: "A significantly smaller team, using the tools we're building, can do more and do it better." The stock jumped 24%. Meanwhile the crypto "education" industry is still charging $10K/year for: → Discord access that goes quiet after 3 months → "Signals" that are just someone else's guesses → Courses you could find on YouTube Tom and I built an entire crypto app and content engine with AI tools. Two co-founders, both working full-time jobs. No dev team. No marketing agency. Total AI cost: $60/month. The era of paying a premium for middlemen is ending. In SaaS. In crypto education. Everywhere. Build systems. Use tools. Stop paying $10K for someone's recycled content.

Things to watch this week: → Iran escalation and Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude spiked 9% to ~$79 after the strikes. Analysts warn an extended disruption could push prices significantly higher, which would be an inflation shock for risk assets. → BTC holding $60K through the volatility. Holding = extremely constructive. Breaking = $52-55K next. → EU Parliament reconvenes March 4 on tariffs. China assessing countermeasures. War + tariffs = toxic for risk assets. → SEC crypto ETF deadline March 27. 91 pending applications across 24 tokens. Market will start pricing this soon. CSH Score: 30.9/100. The system says accumulate. Your emotions might say otherwise. Trust the system.

BTC bouncing off the Feb lows exactly the way bear market rallies tend to play out. We flagged this pattern in the newsletter a few weeks back. Not because we had a crystal ball, but because the playbook repeats: Sharp drop → consolidation → counter-trend rally. 2018 did it. 2022 did it. And now 2026 is rhyming. We dropped to ~$58K in Feb. Consolidated. Now pushing back toward $70K as the geopolitical fear (Iran strikes, tariff threats) gets priced in. My lean? This rally forms a lower high somewhere through March, then we get another leg down into April/May. The pattern doesn't guarantee it, but until we reclaim the prior range with conviction, that's the base case. Not pretending to know exactly how it plays out. But having a framework beats reacting to every green candle like it's the bottom.

The part of my AI content engine that surprises people most isn't the writing. It's the self-learning loop. Every Saturday I download the week's analytics from Typefully, upload the CSV to Claude, and ask it to find patterns. What drove engagement? What fell flat? Why? Claude analyses the data, extracts specific lessons, and saves them into Notion. The next week, when it generates content, it references those lessons automatically. Week 1: content is good. Week 2: content is better because it learned from Week 1. Week 4: the engine is producing insights I wouldn't have spotted manually. The Japanese call this Kaizen. Continuous improvement. 1% better every week. Last week's Kaizen lesson: AI crossover posts get 10-50x the reach of crypto-only posts. So the engine started weighting them higher. That's not me making a decision. That's the system optimising itself. $30/month for Claude. $20/month for Notion. That's the whole stack.

I bought BTC on Feb 6th near the local low. Haven't bought since. Not because I'm scared. Because the system says wait. My DCA framework isn't "buy every Monday regardless." It's: → Check the risk score (currently 30.9/100 — accumulation zone) → Size the buy to the score (lower score = larger allocation) → Set the next trigger level → Ignore the noise between triggers The Iran strikes, the Jane Street conspiracy, the tariff chaos — none of that changes my next buy level. It was set before any of it happened. That's the difference between DCA with a system and DCA on autopilot. Same acronym. Completely different outcomes.

Five straight weeks of Bitcoin ETF outflows. ~$3.8B pulled out since mid-January. Sounds bad. But look at the chart. Those recent outflows are barely visible compared to the massive swings we saw throughout 2025. Single days last year saw bigger moves than entire weeks are producing now. The volatility in ETF flows has actually compressed. What's happening is a slow, steady grind of institutional position trimming — not panic selling. Analysts are pointing to portfolio de-risking amid geopolitical uncertainty and macro headwinds, not a loss of conviction in the asset. Total net assets across Bitcoin ETFs still sit at ~$85B. That's roughly 6.3% of Bitcoin's entire market cap. Cumulative net inflows since launch are still ~$54B. The five-week bleed hasn't made a dent in the bigger picture. The signal to watch: when these small, consistent outflows dry up while price stays flat. That's the selling pressure exhausting itself. That's when accumulation gets interesting.

Week close. No buys this week. Last buy was Feb 6th. Decent chunk of BTC near the local low. Portfolio right now: mostly BTC, small ETH position, fair bit of dry powder for the next 6 months. Cash is king in a bear market. Patience is the edge. Risk scores say lean accumulation. Not "go all in." There's a difference.

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