2898 🙌💎

2898 🙌💎

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🖼️ Punk2898 HODL ✍️【2898 的创业思考】连载中，都是真金白银换回来的干货 🌊 敬畏周期的力量，等待 FED 降息 #bitcoin #ethereum 🦇 🔊

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The pre-Non-Farm Payrolls news has leaked; we need to follow the guidance to make money. We previously mentioned that there would be official briefings before tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls report to adjust expectations, and here it is! Time: 21:25 (New York pre-market) Role: White House National Economic Council Director Hassett Content: Hassett stated that job growth should decline in the coming months, but this should not cause panic (Non-Farm Payrolls expectations). Weak employment means interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, so the market has reached a 50% probability of a Fed rate cut in June. Therefore, tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls should be good, which is why the stock market and BTC (around 70,000) are currently stable. 😁 twitter.com/punk2898/status/20...

The blogger who made the only insightful point about AI is that all your efforts are futile in the face of large-scale model iterations. Take OpenClaw, which has been trending recently. Is it impressive? Yes. Can you use it? No. Due to limitations in context, memory, and cost, it can only be a "lobster pet," not Jarvis. However, as large-scale models iterate step by step, these problems will be solved in a short time. So, while OpenClaw may not be powerful now, it will be very powerful in the future—that's its significance. I laugh when I see many people complaining about OpenClaw's high resource consumption. Of course it's powerful! It's just randomly storing data; does it have any context? Does it have to try things over and over again? But in reality, most of the work requires something like an MCP (Multi-Purpose Component Model), and only after the MCP has undergone a major shakeout will the true MVP (Most Valuable Product) emerge. As for having it do the work for you, it's really more cost-effective to thoroughly try all the mainstream large-scale models and then choose the one that suits your needs, because the latter can indeed solve your problem. But playing around is still fun. Who doesn't want a smart electronic pet?

昨天有兄弟在我Seedream那条推文下留言，问我面对Seedream 2.0，我们到底应该做什么。 Fuck，说实话，我特么也不知道该做什么。但至少，我能告诉你们不要做什么。我频道的受众各行各业都有，独立开发、影视、自媒体、设计师…… 似乎很难给出一个全覆盖的回答。但我心里一直有个不想承认的答案。

This indicator never makes a mistake: BTC suddenly dropped at 7 AM Beijing time because that's when the Nikkei opened, US stock futures opened, and the world's biggest casinos opened! Gold, silver, US stocks, and the US dollar all opened sharply higher. Funds that couldn't be rebalanced over the weekend were forced to be liquidated at the market open to manage risk. - Because BTC did not stop trading, its volatility was not high. Always remember that BTC is just a leveraged US stock market, nothing special. So the question is, what exactly happened to the US stock market during this round of crash? The development of AI is too rapid; a single update to a large model can wipe out decades of effort from software companies like Adobe and Unity. - Everyone was frantically selling and short software stocks, causing them to plummet, but they were indeed oversold. - The chain reaction of this crash: first selling software stocks, then silver and gold, then BTC, and finally Google stocks, shows that everyone is panicked and now there's a problem they don't know how to solve: 1️⃣ Goldman Sachs data shows that short in US stocks has reached an all-time high. 2️⃣ Either the market will stage another major rebound like on Friday, or it will continue to fall, followed by another rebound. However, this week's market performance will depend on the data released on Wednesday and Friday. Please set your reminders. For specific data, please refer to my previous post. twitter.com/punk2898/status/20...

Next week, a decisive battle to the death? The BTC rebound has ended, and it has been fluctuating around 69,000 as those who buy the dips took profits and left the market (these people always make money). Next Wednesday, the US January non-farm payroll report will be released. The market expects 70,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. Next Friday, the US January CPI will be released, which is the most anticipated data by the market. Core CPI growth is expected to fall to its lowest level since the beginning of 2021. So, will the Federal Reserve take advantage of this opportunity? ⚠️Note: Next week's speeches by Federal Reserve officials will likely be followed by market movements based on their expectations. twitter.com/punk2898/status/20...

US Treasury Secretary Bessant has changed his tune yet again. His previous statement about a "strong dollar policy," which triggered the market crash, is now being reinterpreted. The US is currently more concerned with "capital retention" than with "how high the exchange rate can stand." - We do not promise that the dollar will not fall, nor do we bail out the dollar; we promise that "American assets are worth buying." A true man should be like Bessant, able to bend and stretch – this was the first market-saving measure. The second was a change of heart from Federal Reserve officials. San Francisco Fed President Daly stated yesterday that the labor market is fragile and there is still room for interest rate cuts, possibly one or two more. This is the first time the Fed has signaled a rate cut since the recent global market crash. Buying the buy the dips is a sound strategy, but the bear market trend remains unchanged. Best wishes to everyone. twitter.com/punk2898/status/20...

A single bullish green candle saved the world! 😁 The S&P 500 closed up approximately 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite closed up approximately 2.2%. - US Treasury yields are around 4.21%. The US dollar dipped slightly by 0.33%, but gold (GLD) surged by 3.02%. BTC surged 11.55% 📈 这代表什么呢？ The combination of a rising stock market, sustained (or even higher) yields, a surge in gold prices, and a weakening dollar indicates that after deleveraging, investors are returning to buy at bargain prices. Gold has regained its safe-haven status; buying some as a hedge is a good option, as shown in the chart below, aligning with market expectations. - 6.4w is very strong because so many people have this cost basis. This drop has strengthened the support level. - The next resistance level is at 82,000, so it will be a bit difficult to go up. However, since it is in freefall, it can be pushed up if there is a major positive development. The real devastating blow will be at the end of the year when a bunch of mega-AI companies will be listed, which will completely drain the liquidity in the market, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. At that time, BTC will be the first asset to be sold off. Did you panic when it was at 60,000 yesterday? twitter.com/punk2898/status/20...

In this article, I analyzed how Binance could have avoided this attack, and now the market has provided a very good answer. With this level of decline, everyone's attention is no longer on whether Binance did things right or wrong, but on how much money they still have. 😂 twitter.com/punk2898/status/20...

There are two very counterintuitive points. First: ETFs are essentially high-speed channels, and they are the biggest short sellers in a bear market. In a bull market, they can push the market upward, but in a bear market, they can more easily and quickly dump shares. ETFs played a significant role in the current decline. Second: Leveraged longs are the biggest short sellers in a bear market. Some institutions leverage long. When the market is good, they buy Bitcoin and Ethereum and leverage their positions, which certainly pushes the market further up. But when the market falls, they become the biggest short sellers, ruthlessly dumping shares. So you see, whether you are a genuine ETF user, an institution, or a retail investor, you are playing a game of who runs the fastest. Whoever runs the fastest survives in the end, not who eats the most. (The last sentence, "Yi Lihua just wanted to take a bigger bite," is a separate, unrelated statement and doesn't need to be translated.) This is essentially the problem.

The reason for the BTC crash has been found! Global assets plummeted yesterday! Silver prices continued their "flash crash," plunging 19% and erasing all gains from this rally. It's estimated that it will take 10 years to break even. Bitcoin continued its sharp decline, falling 12% and breaking below $65,000, breaching a key support level. U.S. stocks fell across the board, with the Nasdaq experiencing its worst three-day drop since the plunge in April last year. Software stocks continued their collapse, with SaaS stocks falling for the eighth consecutive day, reaching their lowest level since November 2023, and approaching historical extremes in oversold conditions. Several factors contributed to this decline: There's no bad news for BTC; the impact is all due to negative macroeconomic news, which is why BTC's so-called "support line" has been broken. This time, the US stock market did not experience a "V-shaped rebound," marking the first time since Trump took office that he has failed to "support the market." - There was good news last night: initial jobless claims in the US surged while job openings fell to their lowest level since 2020—"bad news is good news," things should have risen, but this is strange. Unlike past market downturns, this time there's no market intervention. Federal Reserve officials, Treasury officials, and even Trump haven't stepped in to quell the panic as usual. Don't despair; BTC is merely collateral damage. Currently, BTC prices are very attractive, and leading Altcoin in their respective sectors are even more so. Microsoft, CRCL, and Bitdeer are all highly sought after. Encountering good assets in one's lifetime is lucky; encountering good assets at very "cheap" prices is a blessing. Wishing everyone financial freedom in advance 🙏 twitter.com/punk2898/status/20...

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