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Crypto Chase
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Crypto Chase
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Bitcoin at 60K in July 2024 was a very different BTC than at 60K today. In July 2024, Trump raised his fist after his attempted assassination, guaranteeing his presidency, which was back then viewed as extemely bullish for markets. #Bitcoin began pricing this in immediately. In early 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs had just been approved and a brand new wave of institutional capital was finally able to access $BTC. In July 2024, Microstrategy had an mNAV around 2 and were aggressively adding to their Bitcoin holdings. In late 2024, they began buying in borderline maniacal fashion. In 2024, the narrative of Bitcoin being a hedge against inflation was still very strong. Optimism was at an all time high and the sky was the limit. We were in price discovery and a $250,000 dollar price target felt a lot more realistic than zero. In 2026, Trump has already been fully priced into the market, and confidence in him has waned. In 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen 2.9 billion in outflows since mid January and roughly 8 billion since late 2025. Institutional capital is exiting, not providing a brand new influx of buying. In 2026, Microstrategy is heavily underwater and their mNAV often teeters on the 1.0 level, where their guidance claims they will no longer dilute shareholders to fund more Bitcoin purchases. In late 2025 into 2026, the inflation hedge narrative has struggled. Equities and commodities saw parabolic advances, while Bitcoin dumped repeatedly. This simultaneously has the major affect of hurting investor confidence. When you’re watching every asset class moon but yours, many leave the loser and chase the winners. Today, the once extreme optimism in Bitcoin has diminished, for many of the reasons discussed above. The all time high is in and there’s A LOT of work to do to get back to those levels. The market will NEED fresh catalysts and fresh buyers. This is something Bitcoin has overcome before, but the potential for returns back then was also much greater. Bitcoin at 60K is a very different investment than Bitcoin at the 3K or 15K bottoms. The multiples from those levels were still extremely attractive. The multiples from 60K are much less so in my opinion. This isn’t to call for the death of Bitcoin, but to provide you with perspective of where we’re currently at (through my lens of course). There will certainly be others with differing opinions and I hope your investments work out for you. I don’t think we’re going to zero, but I do this think recovery will take time, and I certainly don’t think we’re out of the deep waters just yet. Good luck my friends, be well.
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