Luke Gromen

Luke Gromen

Follow

Founder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT). Author of "The Mr. X Interviews, Volumes I & II.” I never solicit via DM's. RT not endorsements.

Posts

Anthropic just told us that white collar unemployment may soon be driven to levels that make the whole system go *boom*. 6-7% unemployment ought to be more than enough to light the fuse. twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/...

Anthropic just told us that white collar unemployment will soon be driven to levels that make the whole system go *boom*

Anas points out another "dog that didn't bark": The mainstream western narrative told us US airstrikes had crippled Iran's ability to make nuclear weapons for many years to come; what changed? Was the mainstream narrative wrong, were we lied to, or is something else going on? twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/...

Left: "US September trade deficit shrinks to smallest since 2020 as gold exports jump" Right: Y/y growth in US October exports appears to be significantly driven by US exports of gold and other precious metals, per the BEA release US balancing trade deficits with gold =🤔🤯 h/t @Steve_Mosner

A few months ago, I got the opportunity to sit down with @balajis for a conversation on the @ns podcast. We talked about a # of structural issues within macro - a full table of contents & the conversation is below; a YouTube link can be found below that. Thx for having me on!

The US military supply chain is made in China. The US tax base is derived from the stock market. Luke Gromen analyzes the collision between the Fed’s financial video game and the physical economy. 6:43 - The Unified Luke Theory of the World 10:30 - The currency of BRICS is

"Francis Scott Key Bridge will take two years longer than initially thought and will cost more than twice as much as initially thought, to rebuild." Take the "over" on both how long rebuilding the US grid & industrial base will cost, & how inflationary it will be.

If you maximize immigration, you… 1) Minimize wage growth for native-born workers, thereby minimizing bond yields, which… 2) Maximizes income inequality, corporate profit margins, Wash DC deficits, & Wall St bonus pools The K-shaped economy works til the pitchforks come out. twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/...

A story in two parts: Left - "US October budget deficit was the highest in history (higher than even Oct-2020 during COVID) despite record Oct Federal receipts & tariff income." Right - "US Regulators Relax Key Bank-Capital Rule Tied to Treasuries" -Bloomberg

If AI doesn’t work, it will risk recession, blowing out fiscal deficits into insufficient foreign UST demand. If AI works, it will undermine the U.S. fiscal position (~half of US Federal receipts come from employment), blowing out deficits into insufficient foreign UST demand.

According to today’s WSJ, AI-related investment accounts for half of GDP growth. A reversal would risk recession. We can’t afford to go backwards.

Loading..