The CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows that the proportion of leveraged funds holding long positions in CME Bitcoin futures declined steadily from 68% in 2023 to 41% in January 2026.
In 2023, the average 30-day implied volatility (BVIV) of Bitcoin was 65%, providing ample room for a futures premium. However, in the second half of 2025, BVIV hovered between 38% and 45%, falling below 38% in early January 2026, hitting a three-year low. With prices consolidating for four months, the futures-spot price spread naturally narrowed to near zero.
