Gareth Soloway

Gareth Soloway

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25 yr Pro Trader | Data Driven, Technical, Disciplined, Psychology | Stock/ETF signals, Crypto signals, Commodity signals @ http://VerifiedInvesting.com

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Trump says 'very good' talks with Iran. Exactly 7am ET it hits. I discussed this on Friday, expecting him to back off. Was short oil into the weekend. Chart was bearish, Trump can be read (TACO) with midterms and inflation coming. Banked it.

Micron (MU) selling in after-hours action. With oil near $100/bbl and inflation spiking, investors may be for another rough day tomorrow. Charts still remain very bearish.

February PPI (MoM) very hot, +0.7% vs +0.3% forecast. Inflation is back with a vengeance. This is on the producer side, so expect it to be passed to the consumer in the coming months. Note: This is before the market oil surge.

Futures drop sharply off their highs as oil spikes back to $96/bbl. Markets prep for a wild day with the Federal Reserve announcement and press conference, oil headlines and $MU earnings after the close.

PCE inflation data release: PCE (MoM) +0.3% as expected. PCE (YoY) +2.8% vs. +2.9% expected. Mostly a non-event as since this data point concluded, oil has surged. 2nd reading of GDP (Q4) is cut in half to 0.7 vs 1.5. This is a sharp revision on US growth

Oil up sharply on further Iranian strikes on oil tankers. I am looking for oil to move back to $100 in the coming days, then inch into a short again.

CPI data reported in-line with expectations. CPI (MoM) +0.3%, CPI (YoY) +2.4%. Markets little to no reaction as everyone knows inflation is surging with the oil rally.

Oil still up over 10% on the day, but a far cry from the 20%+ it was overnight. Any daily crude oil close below $103.00 puts in a topping tail, major bearish reversal chart signal. On watch.

Non Farm Payrolls come in -92,000 vs the forecast of +50,000. Yields falling, not because oil is, but because economic strength calculations are dropping sharply. I still think stagflation is the base case now for the economy.

Yields continue to surge, pricing in higher inflation as oil surges to $85/bbl. In 4 days, the jump in the 10 year rates is the equivalent to a 25+ bps Federal Reserve rate hike.

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