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monetsupply.eth
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work @BlockAnalitica. Ðao appreciator. $SOCKS keep feet warm. pfp by @badkidsart. not financial advice.
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monetsupply.eth
04-21
aave has decided to unfreeze the Ethereum Core WETH market i find this decision a quite ill considered. in the current conditions/IRM configuration, this basically allows LST/LRT holders to take out extremely profitable looping positions, ensuring that aEthWETH remains illiquid for users trying to withdraw taking a look at a weETH loop as an example (weETH is not borrowable so has no solvency risk to Aave market): - weETH trades at 0.5% discount. if we assume this reverts to par-value within 1 month, this means the implied yield is ~6% plus base staking yield (lets call it 8% total) - the Aave Core ETH borrow rate is hard-capped at 5.15%. so each loop earns additional 2.85% yield. weETH can use 14x leverage so the final return would be up to ~45% (and this position cant be squeezed bc utilization is already at 100%) - this strategy also has short-side optionality into Aave solvency fears (eg if aEthWETH trades down to 1% discount, looper can earn instant ~13% return by purchasing aWETH and repaying debt with aToken) basically, this is just a free-money trade for LST/LRT loopers, while making UX for aWETH holders and stablecoin borrowers who have been stuck for the past 3 days even worse maybe this is the explicitly the goal and Aave team want to trap aWETH users in the market, preventing them from withdrawing collateral or refinancing high-cost debt positions to other lending markets? regardless, this decision seems to be based on PR considerations (wanting to show un-frozen ETH market on the frontend) rather than sound risk management or user protection
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monetsupply.eth
04-20
aave was a fairly central part of the defi ecosystem, so there are various secondary impacts to other protocols from the current crisis one of the largest is probably Ethena USDe, via the Aavethena partnership in practice how this has worked is: 1) Aave lists Ethena USDe and sUSDe as collateral within various markets (currently Ethereum Core, Plasma, Mantle, and Ink) 2) Ethena deposits their stablecoin reserve USDC and/or USDT backing into Aave, boosting Aave market size 3) Loopers deposit sUSDe, USDe, and/or Ethena PTs, and borrow out USDC/USDT to lever up on Ethena yields often with Ethena paying additional incentives ("liquid leverage") which boosts Ethena circulating supply Ethena is now mostly out of Aave deposits (notable exceptions of Mantle where Ethena has $268 million stuck and potentially subject to a partial haircut, along with $140 million USDtb deposit in Aave Core which Ethena is inexplicably not withdrawing despite the risk of capital impairment) with stablecoin markets at full utilization across the 4 markets, loopers are now at significant negative ROI (potentially -50% APY or more). in practice, this means we expect the Aavethena loop to essentially fully unwind in the coming days, which could result in roughly ~1.4 billion reduction in USDe circulating supply (~25% reduction) more fundamentally, this situation puts certain business practices of leveraging risk management decisions as part of strategic partnerships in a negative light is it appropriate to allocate user funds at below the risk-free rate to secure collateral listings? or on the other side to give commercial considerations precedence over risk management during the collateral onboarding process? my opinion is NO, curators should be putting their users first
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