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Upside GM 👋
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Upside is Vietnam’s largest community of long-term crypto investors — powered by @WeTheIvy, a Web3 Media Company. @TheIvyNFT is our official NFT collection
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Upside GM 👋
💥 The USD is at its peak, and what does that mean for investors? This chart shows that the USD is currently very strong, nearly matching its highest levels in over 50 years. Historically, each instance of such USD strength has been accompanied by significant imbalances in the global economy and often forced major countries to intervene to correct them. 📍 There have been several significant milestones in the past: - In 1971, the old global monetary system collapsed. - In 1985, the US actively weakened the USD. - In 2000 and 2016, major countries coordinated to stabilize exchange rates. The unique aspect of the current situation is: there is no clear alternative to the USD. The USD is strong not necessarily because the US economy is overwhelmingly superior, but because other regions are weaker and global capital flows still seek "safe havens". 📍According to Bank of America, if the USD weakens in the next few years, it would be a positive sign: - The world is gradually rebalancing after years of imbalance - Money is no longer flowing excessively into the US 📍For individual investors, this means: - The current USD is at a high level, difficult to maintain long-term - When the USD falls, non-US assets, commodities, and emerging markets usually benefit - The forecast of DXY around 95 by the end of 2026 indicates a period of global money reallocation, not just short-term fluctuations In short, this chart simply says: the USD is in an "overly strong" zone, and if it weakens, it could be good news for global markets in the coming years. 💯 Read more: US Dollar M2 Supply: The Impact of M2 on Crypto? coin98.net/cung-tien-m2 twitter.com/gm_upside/status/2...
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Upside GM 👋
💵 25 Years of Money Printing: A Macroeconomic Picture Investors Cannot Ignore 📌 1. To what extent has the global money supply expanded? By September 2025, the total global money supply is projected to reach approximately $142 trillion, compared to just $26 trillion in 2000. This represents a more than fivefold increase in 25 years, with a CAGR of approximately 7% per year – a very high rate considering the scale of the entire global financial system. In 2025 alone, the growth momentum will accelerate significantly: +9.1% year-to-date +6.7% year-on-year A significant part of this is due to the USD depreciating by approximately 9.9%, causing the money supply denominated in USD to swell more rapidly. This reflects the long-term nature of fiat currency: despite short-term tightening periods, the overall trend is expansion. 📌 2. Where is liquidation concentrated and what is its cycle of movement? The global money supply is currently highly concentrated in a few major economic centers: - China: $47.1 trillion (~33%) - EU: $22.3 trillion (~15.7%) - US: $22.2 trillion (~15.6%) - Japan: $11.0 trillion (~7.7%) - UK: $5 trillion (~3.5%) → These five regions account for approximately 75% of global liquidation , indicating that the world's monetary cycle is essentially determined by very few major central banks. More importantly, the chart shows that the money supply is not increasing steadily, but rather increasing sharply with each shock: - 2000s: Financial globalization → Money supply increased by approximately 133% - 2008: Financial crisis → Large-scale easing - 2010s: Money supply continued to increase by approximately 63%. - 2020–2022 (COVID): Money supply increased dramatically by approximately 25% in just two years. - 2022–2024: Strong tightening → Slowing money supply growth, only ~1.4% CAGR 📌 3. Key Insight for Investors: The Liquidation Cycle is Shifting Phases Data from 2025 suggests the money supply is accelerating again, potentially marking the end of the most intense tightening phase of the past cycle. This has several important implications: - Global liquidation is reopening in a structural direction, not just a short-term rebound. - The pressure of "cash shortage" on risky assets (stocks, crypto, real estate) is gradually decreasing compared to 2022–2024. - A weakening USD accompanied by an increase in the money supply typically creates a more favorable environment for non-cash assets. In summary, this diagram reinforces a fundamental principle: In a fiat-based system, the money supply tends to expand over time, and the long-term investment cycle always revolves around anticipating and following the liquidation cycle, rather than avoiding it. Source: Ehsan Soltani - Macro Market Analyst twitter.com/gm_upside/status/2...
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Upside GM 👋
Wall Street's target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026 👇 Oppenheimer: 8,100 Deutsche Bank: 8,000 Capital Economics: 8,000 Morgan Stanley: 7,800 Wells Fargo: 7,800 RBC Capital Markets: 7,750 Evercore ISI: 7,750 Yardeni Research: 7,700 Fundstrat: 7,700 Citigroup: 7,700 Goldman Sachs: 7,600 KKR: 7,600 JPMorgan: 7,500 HSBC: 7,500 UBS: 7,500 Barclays: 7,400 CFRA: 7,400 Société Générale: 7,300 Bank of America: 7,100 Stifel Nicolaus: 7,000 In summary 📌 - Highest: 8,100 - Lowest: 7,000 - Medium: 7.635 - Median: 7,700 💯 FOR THOSE WHO DON'T KNOW WHAT THE S&P 500 IS? The S&P 500 is an index representing the 500 largest companies in the United States, including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and others. It is often XEM a "thermometer" of the US stock market and reflects the overall health of the US economy better than looking at a single stock. The S&P 500 is currently fluctuating around 6,900 points, nearing the 7,000 mark for the first time in history, and has surged strongly over the past 10 years with an Medium increase of approximately 10–17% per year, demonstrating the long-term upward momentum of the US stock market over the past decade. When large institutions forecast the S&P 500 to reach 7,500–8,000 points, it means they expect the total earnings and size of US businesses to continue growing over the next few years. For individual investors, tracking the S&P 500 helps understand the long-term trend of the market, rather than having to guess the right or wrong of individual stocks. twitter.com/gm_upside/status/2...
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💥 Goldman Sachs looks ahead to 2026: 10 questions that will determine cash flow. 📍1. What direction will AI take in 2026? It's not just about chatbots. The focus could shift to robots, self-driving cars, smart glasses, and the most important question: Does AI really help businesses become more efficient and profitable? 📍2. Why are software stocks losing value, and how can they recover? Software companies are facing a difficult question: should they charge based on the number of users, usage, or AI agent? Is software gradually becoming a commodity when everyone uses the same LLM? 3. What story will Apple tell investors in 2026? Is Apple still a safe growth stock? Will AI and foldable iPhones provide enough new impetus? And why is App Store revenue slowing? 4. How does the commodity cycle affect the market? Where are memory chips, precious metals, copper… experiencing supply shortages? Which businesses can raise prices without losing customers, and when will new supplies catch up? 5. Will AI cause many people to lose their jobs? If businesses cut staff thanks to AI, will the market see it as increased productivity or a bad sign for the economy and jobs? 6. Among internet companies, which stocks are the best to buy in 2026? Investors are still debating: who is truly making sustainable profits, and who is being eroded by competition? (Meta, Roblox, DoorDash, MercadoLibre…) 7. Will cyclical industries make a comeback? Real estate, manufacturing, automobiles, traditional semiconductors… after a long period of weakness, will 2026 be a year of recovery? 8. How long will hardware AI stocks continue to lead the market? Or will high profits, large investment costs, and increasingly fierce competition make investors more cautious? 9. How will the market view LLM in 2026? Is it a widespread platform technology, a player-driven game, or a race to AGI/ASI? What Vai will open-source and Chinese models play? 📍10. Which topic is currently overlooked but will "explode" in popularity in 2026? It could be AI agents trading autonomously, AI creating real productivity within businesses, or the return of SaaS stocks after a long period of neglect. Source: @jukan05 - Researcher from Citrini twitter.com/gm_upside/status/2...
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Upside GM 👋
📌 3 KEY POINTS IN MESSARI'S 2026 FORECAST 1⃣ The Big Picture 2026: Where is Smart Money Going? According to Messari, if L1 doesn't see real user and revenue growth, money will flow to Bitcoin. BTC remains a "safe haven," while ETH will continue to follow BTC primarily. While it has institutional backing and corporate users, ETH is not yet strong enough to lead the cycle on its own. Meanwhile, stablecoins are what's truly changing the game. Following the GENIUS Act (2025), stablecoins will no longer be crypto toys, but will become a monetary instrument of the United States. Tether continues to dominate emerging markets, while the US and EU markets are being Chia upon by banks, Big Tech companies, Visa, PayPal, Google, and others. The total supply of stablecoins in 2026 could exceed $600 billion. A new layer is beginning to emerge: stablecoins for AI. AI agents will spend money and conduct transactions independently → Cloudflare, Google, OpenAI, and Stripe are all preparing the payment infrastructure for this world. 2⃣ Ethereum, Solana , and other chains: who does what? Ethereum is positioned by Messari as the central payment hub for large, institutional, and RWA funds. L2 handles transactions, but the L2 Token doesn't benefit much from it. Base is strongest in terms of revenue, Arbitrum is strongest in DeFi. Solana is completely different; he's the king of retail, the king of speculation, the king of memecoin. Where there's retail, there's Volume – Solana remains the main playing field. TRON remains a " USDT printing machine" in emerging markets. Messari believes TRON will remain very difficult to displace if it maintains its position as a central USDT trading platform. 3⃣ DeFi 2026: No More Scavenging Three trends: 🔸 DEXs are becoming super apps. They're not just swap services; they're integrating wallets, bots, launchpads, and subscriptions. Money is earned not just from transaction fees, but from controlling the entire user flow. 🔸Modular lending is gaining ground. Morpho is expected to gradually take market share from AAVE because: - risk separation - Serving RWAs, institutions, and new banks - acting as a “backend” for fintech 🔸 Stablecoins with real returns: - Yields come not only from bonds, but also from credit, AI, GPUs, real estate, and infrastructure. - Stablecoins that pay interest will become the default collateral and savings option in DeFi. ✍️ Qing (via @0xBitalk) twitter.com/gm_upside/status/2...
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