CryptoCon

CryptoCon

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#Bitcoin Technical Analyst || Conservative long term analysis || Here to help you make money || Creator of the Nov 28 Cycles Theory

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60k finally turned short-term MVRV bearish for the first time since the last bear market. February 2026 = January 2022 and February 2018.

Well, that couldn't have gone better! First Low Band of the Bear Bands achieved (63k) in the expected time frame (January - March 2026). The heavy liquidity just above was also completely cleared (69 - 74k). Next points of interest are the second low band at 44k (August - October 2026) and the cycle bottom band at 28k (November 2026 - January 2027).

The current Bitcoin bear market is now lined up with cycle 3's bear market (2022) at a 42% decline. A 1 for 1 copy would be 28k. Again though... expect the unexpected!

Just like during the last bull market, people are developing their plans on exactly how the bear market will go. I was heavily ridiculed for selling my crypto positions in August 2025, and after the move below 80k, now most people are on board with an impending bear market. By now, the Halving Cycles Theory is well known, and so people will be looking for an obvious price in an obvious time frame. About 30k in November 2026. One way or another, the market will find a way to confuse people just as it did in August - October 2025, when nearly all the same people were looking for the cycle to continue into 2026 with new ATHs. The obvious is never so obvious.

A near pinpoint touch of the first heavy liquidity level at 74.5k. The next is just below that at 69k, and the First Low Bear Band support is at 62k. Bearish sentiment has seen a huge uptick. Here's what I've noticed: - Bear market experts appearing at the lows - Flips from those advocating for new ATHs since August 2025 - Calls for precious metal buys vanish after parabolic top Regaurdless of sentiment, the cycle keeps on pushing forward.

Precious metals are the new meme coins. They are absolutely terrible investments right now. The time to buy them was when they were boring for 10 years from 2013 - 2024, when no one wanted them. Not at the pinnacle of an unprecedented parabola! The only good comparison is 1980. Influencers are jumping on the next big thing, encouraging you to fully swap to precious metals. It will work until it doesn't. When it doesn't, it will hurt. Precious metal bear markets are not as forgiving as Bitcoin. The same 70% drawdowns, but they can take decades to recover. This is revenge trading for crypto goers, because they are disgruntled about last cycle's performance, especially with Altcoins. This is payday for long-term precious metal holders, and big sucker day for those buying the parabola. Whether metals continue to rise or not, there are times to buy, and times not to.

Here's this year's Bitcoin bear market lined up with others (2014, 2018, and 2022). The common thought is that the bear market drawdown is decreasing each cycle, and that's been the trend so far. -86%, -84%, -77%. Bitcoin is even ahead now of where it has been at the same point in other cycles. Current drawdown from the cycle top is - 32%, while other cycles have been 43 - 61%. But... there's a point in the bear market that percentage drawdowns unify right before the end, meaning that only the final drop really seems to matter. The unification point is in September 2026 at 35k. Based on previous timelines, the cycle bottom would be between October and November 2026. The Halving Cycles Theory projects November 2026 - January 2027. A cycle 1 bear market copy is 17k, a cycle 3 bear market copy is 28k. The bear market is about 30% complete time-wise.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed is now at Fear, up from Extreme Fear in December 2025. Extreme Fear does not always mean it's the time to buy. We've spent years in greed, and now it represents a change of trend. The cycle has completed just like others. Moves to extreme greed followed by high time frame bearish divergence. Our current move lines up with about 20-30% completion of the bear market.

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