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chengshutong
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热点&投研 | From 2017 | BUIDL @7upDAO | 观点输出 → https://chengshutong.notion.site/chengshutong-1b08b3720b23427eaaae6b5d42c78a29
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chengshutong
03-05
The crypto currently corresponds to the middle and late stages of the second stage of major development of the U.S. stock market and the eve of the third stage of compliance. The first period: the end of the 18th century to 1886, the initial development of the U.S. stock market. The second period: 1886 to 1929, the United States. The stock market is in a stage of rapid development, but market manipulation and insider trading are serious, speculation dominates, and investment ideas have initially developed. The third period: 1929-1959, the U.S. stock market entered a period of standardized development, and the stock market entered the investment era in a real sense. Value investing was the mainstream investment thought in this period. The fourth period: 1954-present, institutional investors have rapidly development, the U.S. stock market has entered the modern investment era. The above is excerpted from "Looking Back at the 200 Years of Development of the U.S. Stock Market" by Xueqiu Bashu Breeding Farm From a chronological point of view, Livermore rose to prominence in 1990, went bankrupt for the fourth time in 1934, and suffered from deep depression. According to Teacher Meng Yan, the current crypto corresponds to the second period of the development history of the US stock market, the eve of the third stage of compliance; the external manifestation of compliance development is the high degree of specialization of the investment crowd, while the core is the gradual increase of chips Being highly concentrated, the stakeholders are more fixed, so obtaining alpha requires higher-dimensional information differences and resource differences; In 1933, the first "Securities Law of 1933" was promulgated, and subsequent laws and regulations on the securities trading market emerged one after another, and the securities market gradually moved toward formal operation; at this time, the method of simply judging by K-lines and trends has gradually become ineffective, and the market pays more attention to the exploration of value differences. , the so-called price investment; in the process of market rhythm transformation, even in the second year after the promulgation of the Securities Law, Livermore was not immune. After the speculative logic he summarized throughout his life failed to resonate with the market, he felt powerless. In 1934 it turned into a gunshot; Looking back at the crypto, the adoption of ETFs is a shadow of compliance. Although U.S. stocks were first compliant and then passed ETFs decades later, the core of ETFs and compliance is the same, and retail investment is more difficult; However, in the early stages of compliance, a certain market will still follow the inertia of the past for a period of time. This also corresponds to the current trends in the crypto and hot speculation. Huge profits can still be made, but what is 100% certain is that this is not a crypto. The final manifestation of circle investment, the transformation from the second stage of retail investors to the third stage of professionalization, will always come. So treat every day now as the last day of the second stage carnival, perhaps the last cycle that ordinary people in the crypto can grasp. In this cycle, the funds in the crypto will be particularly valuable and precious; although we don’t have guns, we also Wouldn't want to follow Livermore's footsteps any other way.
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chengshutong
12-02
Ordi’s market value will definitely be surpassed, and the BTC ecological upper limit is not limited to memes Ordi has made the BTC ecosystem popular. As the No. 1 mint and No. 1 major exchange target, Ordi enjoys first-mover liquidity and leading market capitalization (around $500 million). Therefore, most of the leading inscriptions and projects in the subdivision direction are The market value of ordi is used as the benchmark ceiling, and 1/10-1/5 ($5000-10000w) becomes a strong resistance level for the increase in market value; For example $rats, nostrassets' $treat $trick, atomicals' $atom, ethscription's -202320 23202320232023-4-, $trac issued by Benny, etc., all have market values ​​of $5000-10000w will be blocked; Figure 1 is from @zad1130 (by the way, I want to ask why the boss’s chart is not updated) This is why many people say that the market value of the leading Ordi needs to be enlarged before the overall space of the Bitcoin ecosystem can be opened up; however, this is only applicable to the early stage when the overall ecology is lacking in narrative and meme-dominated, and on the segmented track. No matter how good the product narrative is, it is just a meme, and the first ordi card position is very good and has a natural advantage, and it will naturally become the basis for the valuation and benchmarking of other projects; However, as the narrative of the overall ecology becomes stronger, the market begins to gradually pay attention to the implementation of applications and infrastructure, such as oracles, DeFi, metaverse, second layer, etc. The focus is no longer on meme first, but on matching the head ordi according to the narrative of meme. The target is naturally inappropriate; therefore, in the future, the market value of BTC ecological projects in the infrastructure or application layer will definitely exceed ordi [in stages], which can also open up the narrative space of the entire ecology in disguise. If one exceeds, there will be a second one. The third... a hundred flowers bloom; Saying so much is not not to be optimistic about Ordi, but the subsequent development of DeFi will first start from the Ordinals ecology, based on ordi sats with good liquidity, and lock its liquidity in disguise; ordi, these top assets with good liquidity, are positioned It is a meme leader and also the underlying asset. Just like ETH to the Ethereum ecosystem, it is more motivated and meaningful for project parties to build products on assets with good liquidity; More, I just want to explain that ordi does not represent the ceiling of the Bitcoin ecosystem, maybe it is just the ceiling of meme? There will definitely be good projects in the future with an initial sale market value of tens of millions. This is also the natural result of the market gradually affirming the BTC ecosystem. If you simply benchmark it against Ordi, you will definitely feel that there is no market and investment space. In fact, it may surpass Ordi. existence; in fact, it is good, this will make most people lack the courage and judgment to get on the bus.
ORDI
11.64%
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